Upcoming economic events 1 April 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)	0.3%	0.3%
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	50.6	50.8
03:30		3 points	RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)	4.10%	4.10%
03:30		2 points	RBA Rate Statement	———-	———-
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	48.7	47.6
09:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	2.5%	2.6%
09:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Mar)	2.2%	2.3%
09:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Mar)	———-	0.4%
09:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Feb)	6.2%	6.2%
12:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	49.8	52.7
14:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb)	0.2%	-0.2%
14:00		2 points	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar)	———-	47.6
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	49.6	50.3
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar)	64.9	62.4
14:00		3 points	JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)	7.730M	7.740M
16:30		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)	-2.8%	-2.8%
23:25		2 points	RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks	———-	———-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on April 1, 2025

Australia (🇦🇺)

1. Retail Sales (MoM) (February) (00:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 0.3%
   • Previous: 0.3%
   • Market Impact:
     • Higher retail sales support the AUD by signaling consumer strength.
     • A weaker result may reflect demand softness and weigh on AUD.
2. RBA Interest Rate Decision (April) (03:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 4.10%
   • Previous: 4.10%
   • Market Impact:
     • A surprise hike would likely strengthen the AUD.
     • A dovish tone or rate cut could pressure the AUD lower.
3. RBA Rate Statement (03:30 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Commentary on inflation, employment, and growth outlook will guide expectations for future monetary policy.

China (🇨🇳)

4. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March) (01:45 UTC)
   • Forecast: 50.6
   • Previous: 50.8
   • Market Impact:
     • Readings above 50 show sector expansion, supporting global sentiment and commodity-linked currencies.
     • A sub-50 reading could pressure risk assets.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

5. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (March) (08:00 UTC)
   • Forecast: 48.7
   • Previous: 47.6
   • Market Impact:
     • Improvement signals manufacturing recovery, potentially supporting the EUR.
     • Persistent weakness may cap EUR gains.
6. Core CPI (YoY) (March) (09:00 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.5%
   • Previous: 2.6%
   • Market Impact:
     • Lower inflation could justify a dovish ECB stance.
     • Stickier inflation might keep tightening risks alive, supporting the EUR.
7. CPI (YoY) (March) (09:00 UTC)
   • Forecast: 2.2%
   • Previous: 2.3%
   • Market Impact:
     • Similar directional impact as Core CPI, with market sensitivity to inflation persistence.
8. CPI (MoM) (March) (09:00 UTC)
   • Previous: 0.4%
   • Market Impact:
     • Reinforces trends in price pressure; an upside surprise could be EUR-positive.
9. Unemployment Rate (February) (09:00 UTC)
   • Forecast: 6.2%
   • Previous: 6.2%
   • Market Impact:
     • Stability supports economic recovery narrative.
     • Any uptick might add pressure to the ECB to remain accommodative.
10. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (12:30 UTC)
    • Market Impact:
      • Dovish rhetoric may soften the EUR.
      • Hawkish tone could bolster the euro.

United States (🇺🇸)

11. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March) (13:45 UTC)
    • Forecast: 49.8
    • Previous: 52.7
    • Market Impact:
      • A dip back into contraction territory (<50) may weigh on the USD.
      • A rebound would suggest resilience in U.S. manufacturing.
12. Construction Spending (MoM) (February) (14:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: 0.2%
    • Previous: -0.2%
    • Market Impact:
      • Improvement is USD-positive as it reflects investment activity.
13. ISM Manufacturing Employment (March) (14:00 UTC)
    • Previous: 47.6
    • Market Impact:
      • Labor market strength would support the USD.
      • Weakness might raise concerns about broader employment trends.
14. ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) (14:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: 49.6
    • Previous: 50.3
    • Market Impact:
      • Falling back below 50 could dampen USD sentiment.
      • A surprise to the upside may bolster confidence in the recovery.
15. ISM Manufacturing Prices (March) (14:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: 64.9
    • Previous: 62.4
    • Market Impact:
      • High input prices may signal inflationary pressures, affecting Fed policy bets.
16. JOLTS Job Openings (February) (14:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: 7.73M
    • Previous: 7.74M
    • Market Impact:
      • A robust job openings figure would support labor market optimism.
17. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) (17:00 UTC)
    • Forecast: -2.8%
    • Previous: -2.8%
    • Market Impact:
      • Negative readings point to slowing growth, which may weigh on the USD.
18. RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (23:25 UTC)
    • Market Impact:
      • Any remarks on monetary policy direction could affect AUD volatility.

Overall Market Impact Score: 7/10

Key Focus: RBA decision, Eurozone inflation data, U.S. ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS Job Openings. All critical to monetary policy expectations and broader market sentiment.