Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:30 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ——— | ——— |
| 18:00 |  | 2 points | 2-Year Note Auction | ——— | 4.130% |
| 21:45 |  | 2 points | Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) | ——— | -1.2% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 25, 2024
- ECB’s Lane Speaks (15:30 UTC):
Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane may provide insights into the Eurozone’s economic outlook and inflation trajectory. Hawkish commentary emphasizing inflation risks would support the EUR, while dovish remarks focusing on economic challenges could weaken the currency. - US 2-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
Previous Yield: 4.130%.
The auction outcome reflects market demand for short-term US government debt. Higher yields would indicate increased inflation expectations or risk premiums, supporting the USD. Lower yields might suggest easing inflation concerns or reduced demand for US debt. - New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) (21:45 UTC):
Previous: -1.2%.
Measures quarterly changes in consumer spending. A positive figure would indicate stronger retail activity, supporting the NZD. Further contraction would suggest weakening consumer demand, potentially weighing on the currency.
Market Impact Analysis
- ECB Speech (Lane):
Hawkish remarks would reinforce expectations for tighter ECB monetary policy, supporting the EUR. Dovish commentary highlighting economic risks could weigh on the EUR. - US 2-Year Note Auction:
Rising yields signal market expectations of persistent inflation or Fed tightening, which would support the USD. Lower yields would indicate softer inflation expectations, potentially weakening the currency. - New Zealand Retail Sales:
Strong retail sales growth would suggest robust consumer demand, supporting the NZD. Continued contraction would indicate economic challenges, likely pressuring the NZD.
Overall Impact
Volatility:
Moderate, with key attention on ECB commentary and New Zealand retail sales data. The US Treasury auction may influence USD sentiment based on yield outcomes.
Impact Score: 5/10, driven by central bank insights and economic activity measures that will shape short-term sentiment for the EUR, USD, and NZD.
