Upcoming economic events 16 April 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar)	4.1%	4.1%
02:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	1.4%	1.6%
02:00		3 points	GDP (YoY) (Q1)	5.2%	5.4%
02:00		2 points	Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q1)	———-	5.0%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)	5.9%	5.9%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Mar)	———-	5.9%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Mar)	5.3%	5.4%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———-	———-
09:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	2.4%	2.6%
09:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Mar)	0.6%	0.4%
09:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Mar)	2.2%	2.3%
12:30		3 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)	0.4%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Mar)	———-	1.0%
12:30		3 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)	1.4%	0.2%
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	-0.2%	0.7%
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)	———-	1.44%
14:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb)	0.3%	0.3%
14:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb)	0.1%	0.5%
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———-	2.553M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	0.681M
17:00		2 points	20-Year Bond Auction	———-	4.632%
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)	———-	———-
17:15		3 points	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	———-	———-
20:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb)	35.2B	-45.2B
22:45		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q1)	2.3%	2.2%
22:45		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q1)	0.8%	0.5%
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.25T	0.18T
23:50		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Mar)	———-	11.4%
23:50		2 points	Trade Balance (Mar)	———-	584.5B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on April 16, 2025

China (🇨🇳)

1. Q1 GDP (YoY) – 02:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 5.2% / 5.4%
   • Market Impact: A slowdown in growth is anticipated due to escalating U.S. tariffs and weakening exports. Analysts have revised China’s full-year GDP forecasts downward, with some projecting growth at 3.4% for 2025.
2. Q1 GDP (QoQ) – 02:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 1.4% / 1.6%
   • Market Impact: Quarterly growth is expected to decelerate, reflecting the impact of trade tensions and domestic economic challenges.
3. Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar) – 02:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 4.1% / 4.1%
   • Market Impact: Stable investment growth suggests cautious optimism amid economic headwinds.
4. Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) – 02:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 5.9% / 5.9%
   • Market Impact: Steady industrial output indicates resilience in the manufacturing sector despite external pressures.
5. Unemployment Rate (Mar) – 02:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 5.3% / 5.4%
   • Market Impact: A slight decrease in unemployment may provide some relief to policymakers amid economic uncertainties.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

6. CPI (YoY) (Mar) – 09:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 2.2% / 2.3%
   • Market Impact: A decline in inflation may influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions, potentially supporting rate cut considerations.
7. Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) – 09:00 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 2.4% / 2.6%
   • Market Impact: Easing core inflation could reinforce expectations for a more accommodative stance from the ECB.

United States (🇺🇸)

8. Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) – 12:30 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 1.4% / 0.2%
   • Market Impact: A significant increase is anticipated, driven by a surge in automobile purchases as consumers acted ahead of impending tariffs.
9. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) – 12:30 UTC
   • Forecast / Previous: 0.4% / 0.3%
   • Market Impact: Moderate growth in core sales suggests underlying consumer demand remains steady.
10. Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) – 13:15 UTC
    • Forecast / Previous: -0.2% / 0.7%
    • Market Impact: A decline in production may raise concerns about manufacturing sector momentum.
11. Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 UTC
    • Previous: 2.553M
    • Market Impact: Inventory levels will be closely watched for indications of supply-demand dynamics in the energy market.
12. Fed Chair Powell Speech – 17:15 UTC
    • Market Impact: Investors will scrutinize remarks for insights into the Federal Reserve’s outlook on inflation and interest rates.

New Zealand (🇳🇿)

13. CPI (YoY) (Q1) – 22:45 UTC
    • Forecast / Previous: 2.3% / 2.2%
    • Market Impact: Slightly higher inflation may influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy considerations.
14. CPI (QoQ) (Q1) – 22:45 UTC
    • Forecast / Previous: 0.8% / 0.5%
    • Market Impact: An uptick in quarterly inflation could signal building price pressures.

Japan (🇯🇵)

15. Trade Balance (Mar) – 23:50 UTC
    • Previous: 584.5B
    • Market Impact: Trade data will provide insights into export performance amid global economic uncertainties.
16. Exports (YoY) (Mar) – 23:50 UTC
    • Previous: 11.4%
    • Market Impact: Export figures will be analyzed for signs of demand strength or weakness in key markets.

Market Impact Analysis

• CNY: Potential volatility in response to GDP and industrial production data, especially amid ongoing trade tensions.
• EUR: Inflation readings may influence ECB policy expectations, affecting euro strength.
• USD: Retail sales and Fed Chair Powell’s speech are key events that could sway market sentiment and dollar valuation.
• NZD: Inflation data may impact expectations for RBNZ’s policy trajectory.
• JPY: Trade data will be pivotal in assessing Japan’s economic resilience.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Focus: China’s GDP release, U.S. retail sales figures, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech are the primary events likely to drive market movements on April 16, 2025.