Thomas Daniels
XRP’s meteoric rally—over 550% since November, reaching $3.17—has reignited investor speculation about a potential surge toward $30, or even $34, by mid-2026. This projection, championed by technical analyst Gert van Lagen, draws on historical patterns in the cryptocurrency’s price behavior, but structural market risks may temper such optimism.
Technical Patterns Suggest 10x Upside Potential
Van Lagen’s analysis identifies a breakout from a seven-year double-bottom pattern, with the neckline at $1.80 now acting as support. Historically, such a retest strengthens bullish conviction. Using a 2.00 Fibonacci extension, the measured move implies a target of $34.
This setup parallels XRP’s 2014–2017 rally, when a multi-year base preceded gains exceeding 100,000%. More recently, XRP has delivered triple- and quadruple-digit rallies: a 1,072% surge since 2022 lows and a 1,625% rise during the 2020–2021 cycle.
The 2020–2021 surge coincided with near-zero U.S. interest rates, while recent gains have been fueled by Ripple’s legal progress, exchange relistings, and optimism over a potential spot ETF approval—now estimated to have a 95% probability. Such approval could propel XRP toward $27, approaching Van Lagen’s target zone.
XRPL Metrics Signal Potential Overvaluation
Despite its market capitalization of $190 billion, the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) total value locked (TVL) stands at just $85 million—a market cap-to-TVL ratio of roughly 2,200. This sharply contrasts with Ethereum’s ratio of 5.6, despite XRP’s valuation equaling nearly 40% of Ethereum’s.
The imbalance raises concerns over whether XRP’s market value is disproportionately high relative to its on-chain activity. Furthermore, Glassnode data shows over 95% of XRP’s supply is currently in profit—levels that historically preceded significant corrections during the 2020–2021 and 2022–2025 rallies. High profit-taking potential could exert sustained selling pressure, challenging the path to $30.
Bottom Line
While technical indicators and historical precedents bolster the bullish case for XRP, fundamental valuation metrics and investor profit-taking behavior highlight significant headwinds. If the spot ETF catalyst materializes, XRP could test the upper range of analyst projections—but sustaining those levels may prove far more challenging.
