David Edwards
As trade negotiations between the United States and China approach a critical juncture, analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s market behavior for clues about its evolving status as a macroeconomic safe-haven asset.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto highlighted that Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional markets during April’s stock market sell-off, triggered by former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on “Liberation Day.” While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posted declines, Bitcoin rebounded sharply from a low of $75,000 on April 7 to close the month at around $95,000—a 27% recovery.
This outperformance sparked speculation that Bitcoin’s strength may be tied to narratives of geopolitical utility, particularly its potential role in bypassing trade restrictions. However, Daan noted that if Bitcoin’s relative strength stemmed from trade tensions, it should theoretically reverse once a trade agreement is finalized.
“If the trade uncertainty was what was making BTC outperform, it should stop outperforming after we hit the most important deal, which includes China,” he explained.
On May 11, the White House confirmed that negotiations with China had made “substantial progress,” although no formal deal had been reached. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that further details would be released imminently.
Should Bitcoin continue to outperform even after a deal is signed, it would imply that macroeconomic drivers beyond trade tensions are sustaining its momentum. “If Bitcoin keeps doing its thing and outperforming, it’s safe to assume that tariffs likely have little direct impact on how BTC is treated or used,” Daan concluded.
Market analysts suggest a trade deal could act as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, especially if paired with dovish monetary policy. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, pointed out that institutional confidence in crypto could rise with the resolution of trade uncertainty and the prospect of interest rate cuts.
Jupiter Zheng, a researcher at HashKey Capital, echoed this view, arguing that a trade accord could stabilize global markets, push liquidity into alternative assets, and potentially lift Bitcoin to new all-time highs—particularly if the agreement leads to a weakening US dollar or increased flows into emerging markets.
Meanwhile, on X, crypto analyst Will Clemente cautioned that Bitcoin’s current momentum may be waning and that a “real, tangible announcement” from the US-China talks would be necessary to sustain its upward trajectory.
