Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 00:30 |  | 2 points | au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Aug) | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | GDP (YoY) (Q2) | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 01:45 |  | 2 points | Caixin Services PMI (Aug) | 52.4 | 52.6 |
| 07:30 |  | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 08:00 | | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug) | 51.1 | 50.9 |
| 08:00 | | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) | 50.7 | 51.0 |
| 14:00 |  | 2 points | Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) | -1.3% | -4.8% |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) | 7.390M | 7.437M |
| 17:30 | | 2 points | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Beige Book | ———- | ———- |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | -0.974M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 2, 2025
Asia – Australia & Japan
Australia – Current Account (Q2) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: -15.9B (Prev.: -14.7B)
- Impact: A wider deficit signals weaker trade performance, potentially weighing on AUD, especially if commodity prices remain under pressure.
Japan – 10-Year JGB Auction – 03:35 UTC
- Prev. Yield: 1.462%
- Impact: Auction demand will shape JGB yields. Strong demand keeps yields low and supports JPY; weak demand may push yields higher, weakening JPY.
Europe – Inflation & ECB Commentary
Eurozone CPI (Aug) – 09:00 UTC
- Core CPI YoY: 2.2% (Prev.: 2.3%)
- Headline CPI YoY: 2.0% (Prev.: 2.0%)
- CPI MoM: Flat expected (Prev.: 0.0%)
- Impact: Inflation holding steady/slightly softer suggests ECB policy may stay cautious. A surprise decline could weaken EUR; stronger-than-expected inflation could fuel hawkish expectations.
ECB’s Elderson Speaks – 11:30 UTC
- Impact: Focus will be on his stance regarding inflation persistence and monetary easing. Hawkish tone supports EUR, dovish tone pressures it.
United States – Manufacturing & Growth Outlook
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) – 13:45 UTC
- Forecast: 53.3 (Prev.: 49.8)
- Impact: A sharp recovery into expansion signals industrial rebound, positive for USD and equities.
Construction Spending (MoM, Jul) – 14:00 UTC
- Forecast: -0.1% (Prev.: -0.4%)
- Impact: Continued contraction in construction would be negative for U.S. growth outlook, particularly housing-related sectors.
ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices (Aug) – 14:00 UTC
- PMI Forecast: 48.9 (Prev.: 48.0)
- Prices Forecast: 65.1 (Prev.: 64.8)
- Impact: A modest PMI recovery still signals contraction, while high prices reflect inflationary pressure. This mix could complicate Fed policy—growth weak, but costs remain high.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 17:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.5% (same)
- Impact: Strong tracking estimate underlines resilience in U.S. growth, supportive for USD and yields.
Market Impact Analysis
- Asia: AUD likely pressured by widening current account deficit, while JGB auction may shift yen sentiment depending on demand.
- Europe: Eurozone CPI is the main driver—flat inflation keeps EUR under pressure unless ECB commentary turns hawkish.
- U.S.: PMI readings are pivotal. A strong rebound (S&P 53.3, ISM near 49) alongside high price pressures could strengthen USD and lift yields, while weak data would revive recession fears and favor equities.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
- Why: U.S. manufacturing data and Eurozone inflation dominate, with potential to move USD, EUR, and equity markets significantly. Strong PMI + firm inflation data could tilt sentiment toward “higher-for-longer” Fed and ECB policies.
