Upcoming economic events 25 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30		2 points	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)	0.1%	0.5%
12:30		3 points	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)	-10.4%	16.4%
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.4%	2.4%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	421	422
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	544
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	162.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	213.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	34.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-167.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-74.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	103.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	128.2K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 25, 2025

United States – Durable Goods, GDP, and Speculative Positions

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +0.1% | Previous: +0.5%
• Impact: A slowdown in core durable goods orders may signal softening business investment, potentially reducing economic growth expectations and pressuring USD.

Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: –10.4% | Previous: +16.4%
• Impact: A sharp decline in overall durable goods orders could signal a significant slowdown in economic activity, negatively impacting USD and stocks.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.4% (same)
• Impact: The GDPNow forecast reinforces steady growth, providing support for equities and USD. Any upward revision would boost optimism, while a downgrade could weigh on sentiment.

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Previous: 421
• Impact: A stable rig count suggests steady oil production, offering stability to oil prices and related equities.

U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Previous: 544
• Impact: A slight drop in rigs may indicate slowing oil exploration, potentially supporting oil prices in the short term.

Speculative Net Positions – CFTC Data

CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: 162.4K
• Impact: A high speculative position may signal that oil prices are overbought and susceptible to a correction if market sentiment changes.

CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: 213.1K
• Impact: Strong long positions in gold reflect investor concerns about inflation and market volatility. A sudden unwind could weigh on gold prices.

CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: 34.9K
• Impact: Net long positions indicate optimism in tech stocks. A large shift could signal caution and drive volatility in Nasdaq-linked assets.

CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: –167.8K
• Impact: Short positions in the S&P 500 indicate market pessimism. A change towards long positions would suggest confidence in broader equities.

CFTC AUD Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: –74.9K
• Impact: Short positions suggest bearish sentiment for AUD. Any change could shift the direction of the AUD.

CFTC JPY Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: 103.6K
• Impact: Long positions in JPY indicate optimism. A significant shift could influence the JPY trajectory, especially if risk sentiment shifts.

CFTC EUR Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Previous: 128.2K
• Impact: Strong long positions suggest confidence in EUR. A shift in speculative positioning could indicate changes in European economic expectations.

Market Impact Analysis

• Durable goods and GDP data are crucial for determining the broader economic trajectory. A larger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders could shift expectations towards a weaker economic outlook, negatively affecting the USD and stocks.
• Speculative positioning data will guide sentiment in key markets like oil, gold, tech, and equities. These data points could lead to volatility, especially if there’s a shift in the direction of market positioning.
• The Baker Hughes rig count and CFTC data on energy and speculative positions will be closely watched for any signs of market overextension, especially in oil and gold.

Overall Impact Score: 7.5 / 10

Key Watchpoints:

• Durable goods orders: A large miss could spark a bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and affect USD.
• Speculative positions: Shifts in CFTC data could be key indicators for sentiment changes, especially in oil and gold.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Any upward revision would support equities and USD; a downgrade could dampen market sentiment.