Upcoming economic events 13 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Dec)	7.3%	6.7%
03:00		2 points	Imports (YoY) (Dec)	-1.5%	-3.9%
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)	100.00B	97.44B
03:15		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———-	———-
11:00		2 points	New Loans (Dec)	890.0B	580.0B
16:00		2 points	NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec)	———-	3.0%
19:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Dec)	-67.6B	-367.0B
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	254.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	247.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	23.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-56.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-71.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	-8.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-69.6K
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Current Account (Nov)	2.59T	240.88T
23:50		2 points	Current Account n.s.a. (Nov)	———-	2.457T

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 13, 2025

China (03:00 UTC)

1. Exports (YoY) (Dec):
   • Forecast: 7.3%, Previous: 6.7%.
     Indicates demand for Chinese goods globally. Strong exports suggest resilient global demand and support for commodity currencies.
2. Imports (YoY) (Dec):
   • Forecast: -1.5%, Previous: -3.9%.
     Reflects domestic consumption and demand for foreign goods; a smaller contraction signals recovery in internal demand.
3. Trade Balance (USD) (Dec):
   • Forecast: $100.00B, Previous: $97.44B.
     A larger surplus strengthens the CNY and reflects China’s competitive trade position.

European Union (03:15 UTC)

4. ECB’s Lane Speaks:
   ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane may comment on monetary policy or economic forecasts, influencing EUR sentiment.

China (11:00 UTC)

5. New Loans (Dec):
   • Forecast: 890.0B, Previous: 580.0B.
     A significant increase suggests robust credit expansion, supporting economic activity and risk sentiment.

United States (16:00–20:30 UTC)

NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec):

• Previous: 3.0%.
  Reflects consumers’ short-term inflation expectations; deviations can influence rate hike expectations.

6. Federal Budget Balance (Dec):
   • Forecast: -$67.6B, Previous: -$367.0B.
     Narrowing deficit could indicate improved fiscal discipline, which may bolster USD confidence.
7. CFTC Position Reports (20:30 UTC):
   • Speculative positions for crude oil, gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, and EUR provide insights into market sentiment and risk appetite.

Japan (23:50 UTC)

9. Adjusted Current Account (Nov):
   • Forecast: 2.59T, Previous: 240.88T.
     Indicates the total trade and investment balance adjusted for seasonal effects, highlighting Japan’s external economic strength.
10. Current Account n.s.a. (Nov):

• Previous: 2.457T.
  Measures net trade in goods, services, and income; a strong reading supports JPY stability.

Market Impact Analysis

1. CNY Impact:
   • Higher exports and a smaller contraction in imports strengthen the yuan and improve global risk sentiment.
2. EUR Impact:
   • Comments from ECB’s Lane could signal policy shifts; dovish tones might pressure the EUR.
3. USD Impact:
   • Inflation expectations and fiscal data will shape the USD’s direction, especially if inflation risks reappear or fiscal discipline improves.
4. JPY Impact:
   • A higher current account surplus bolsters the JPY, reflecting strong trade or investment income.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Moderate.
• Impact Score: 6/10 – Trade data from China and the U.S. budget figures are the primary drivers.