Thomas Daniels
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 04:30 |  | 2 points | Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 11:30 |  | 2 points | New Loans (Aug) | 750.0B | -50.0B |
| 14:00 |  | 2 points | Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) | ———- | 4.8% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) | ———- | 3.5% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) | ———- | 55.9 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) | 58.0 | 58.2 |
| 16:00 | | 2 points | WASDE Report | ———- | ———- |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | ———- | 414 |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | ———- | 537 |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | ———- | 102.4K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Gold speculative net positions | ———- | 249.5K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | ———- | 15.4K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | ———- | -161.1K |
| 19:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC AUD speculative net positions | ———- | -82.7K |
| 19:30 | | 2 points | CFTC JPY speculative net positions | ———- | 73.3K |
| 19:30 |  | 2 points | CFTC EUR speculative net positions | ———- | 119.6K |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 12, 2025
Asia – Japan & China
Japan Industrial Production (MoM, Jul) – 04:30 UTC
- Forecast: -1.6% (prev -1.6%)
- Impact: No change expected. Weak output reflects continued slowdown in manufacturing and global demand, weighing on JPY. Stable but negative reading suggests downside pressure for Japanese equities and industrial exporters.
China New Loans (Aug) – 11:30 UTC
- Forecast: 750B (prev -50B)
- Impact: A strong rebound from negative lending signals renewed credit growth.
- Higher lending → boosts growth expectations, supports CNY and Asian equities.
- Weak print → reinforces slowdown fears, bearish for commodities and risk assets.
United States – Consumer Sentiment, Agriculture & Energy
University of Michigan Survey (Sep) – 14:00 UTC
- 1-Year Inflation Expectations: prev 4.8%
- 5-Year Inflation Expectations: prev 3.5%
- Consumer Expectations: forecast 55.9 (prev 55.9)
- Consumer Sentiment: forecast 58.0 (prev 58.2)
- Impact:
- Rising inflation expectations → strengthens USD, lifts yields, pressures equities.
- Improving sentiment → bullish for equities. Weak sentiment would reflect fragile demand outlook.
WASDE Report – 16:00 UTC
- Impact: USDA’s crop supply/demand update can move agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans). Higher supply → bearish for prices; lower supply → bullish, potentially lifting inflation expectations.
Baker Hughes Rig Count – 17:00 UTC
- Oil Rigs: prev 414
- Total Rigs: prev 537
- Impact: Rising rig counts → higher U.S. output, weighing on crude. Falling rigs → bullish for oil prices.
CFTC Positioning Data – 19:30 UTC
- Crude Oil Net Speculative Positions: prev 102.4K
- Gold Net Speculative Positions: prev 249.5K
- Equity Index Positions (Nasdaq, S&P 500): indicate speculative sentiment toward U.S. equities.
- FX Speculative Positions (AUD, JPY, EUR): show hedge fund positioning, important for FX market trend analysis.
Market Impact Analysis
- Asia: Focus on Chinese lending rebound. If New Loans exceed forecasts, risk appetite improves in commodities and Asia-Pacific currencies. Weak print could spark global risk aversion.
- U.S.: Michigan inflation expectations and consumer sentiment will shape Fed outlook. WASDE adds to commodity-driven inflation risks. Rig count and CFTC flows influence energy and metals.
- Positioning Data: High gold longs + weak equities positioning suggest defensive risk sentiment remains in markets.
Overall Impact Score: 7/10
- Why: No “tier-1” releases like CPI or Fed decision, but China’s credit rebound, U.S. inflation expectations, and energy/commodity updates provide multiple drivers for risk sentiment, commodity markets, and FX.
