Pavel Durov’s Arrest in France Sparks Speculation on Release

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in France over the weekend. On Polymarket, people are betting he’ll remain in custody past the 96-hour limit set by the courts, as there’s a growing belief he could face formal charges.

French prosecutors have said that Durov could be released as early as Wednesday, but Polymarket bettors are skeptical he’ll be free in August, with bets focusing on a potential release by the end of September.

Prosecutors confirmed that Durov hasn’t been formally charged yet. He is being held as part of an investigation into crimes allegedly organized or shared on Telegram, including money laundering, drug trafficking, child pornography, and failing to cooperate with law enforcement.

Bettors estimate there’s a 72% chance Durov will be released before October, with shares for a “yes” outcome trading at 72 cents. Each share will pay out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, if the prediction is accurate, and $0 if not.

Durov was arrested on Saturday, August 24, 2024, at 8:00 PM local time when his plane landed at Le Bourget Airport, north of Paris. Based on this, he could be held until Wednesday, August 28, 2024, at 8:00 PM. However, many bettors believe his stay might be extended.

The press release suggests that if investigators find enough evidence during questioning, Durov’s detention could be extended, or he could face formal charges and move to pre-trial detention. This uncertainty likely drives the skepticism around his release by the initial deadline.

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