The co-founder of Delphi Digital, Kevin Kelly, pointed out on August 14th that there are certain on-chain indicators and graphics suggesting we might be entering a fresh crypto bull phase. He emphasized that there’s a pattern to how crypto markets behave, and understanding this can be crucial for future predictions.
“Evidence is piling up that we’re in the early stages of a new cycle. Risk assets like stocks [and] crypto have been sniffing this out all year.”
On August 8, Delphi Digital released a chart indicating that Bitcoin seems to follow a distinct four-year cycle pattern. According to this pattern, Bitcoin typically sees a sharp 80% drop in value during the first year, takes the next two years to bounce back to its previous highs, and then achieves a new all-time high in the fourth year. This pattern has been consistent over the last three cycles.
Furthermore, Kelly pointed out a striking correlation: the peaks of Bitcoin’s cycle often align with the highs of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. This index measures the well-being of the manufacturing and service sectors in the U.S.
“BTC price peaks occur around the same time the ISM shows signs of topping out. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total fees – they all peaked alongside tops in the ISM too.”