Thomas Daniels
Ether (ETH) is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, with analysts identifying a technical “megaphone pattern” on the weekly chart that could propel the asset toward a $10,000 valuation. This broadening formation—defined by widening price swings and higher highs—signals the potential for explosive upside if resistance levels are convincingly breached.
Critical Resistance at $5,000
Currently, Ethereum faces a key resistance level at $5,000. Surpassing this threshold is expected to trigger approximately $5 billion in cumulative short position liquidations, which could accelerate the rally further. However, failure to sustain a breakout above this level may lead to a pullback toward the 12-week simple moving average around $3,500 or the lower boundary of the pattern near $3,000, which aligns with the 25-week SMA.
Analysts emphasize the importance of volume confirmation. A breakout without sufficient trading activity could prove to be a false signal, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction.
Long-Term Institutional Demand Builds Momentum
Ethereum’s bullish structure is reinforced by a substantial shift in institutional capital. Over the second quarter of 2025, ETH saw $28.5 billion in net inflows—an influx that sharply contrasts Bitcoin’s capital outflows during the same period.
Additionally, major corporate treasuries acquired more than 1.2 million ETH, valued at roughly $3 billion. The asset’s available supply on centralized exchanges continues to decline due to long-term staking, DeFi migration, and spot ETF integrations, contributing to a tightening supply environment. This “supply shock” has historically preceded major price rallies in the crypto market.
On-chain metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio further support the bullish case. With NUPL entering the “belief” zone and the MVRV ratio at 2.08—still well below previous cycle peaks—the conditions remain favorable for continued upward momentum.
A Multi-Year Expansion Cycle Emerges
According to analysts, Ethereum has broken out of a 4.5-year institutional accumulation range. This structural breakout, which followed the conclusion of the previous four-year cycle in December 2024, marks the beginning of a new expansion phase.
Despite the strong long-term outlook, market participants are cautioned to expect mid-term volatility. ETH remains below its all-time high of $4,880 and is confronting its sixth diagonal trendline resistance. Historically, multiple rejections from such levels are followed by eventual breakouts—but often only after deep retests.
Market observers draw comparisons to Bitcoin’s $25,000 correction in mid-2023, suggesting that a similar flush-out in Ethereum could occur before the asset resumes its broader uptrend.
Correlation with Bitcoin remains a key variable. While Ethereum has outperformed BTC in recent months, historical data shows a persistent correlation above 0.8 over the past five years, indicating that Bitcoin’s price movement will continue to influence Ethereum’s trajectory.
Summary
Ethereum’s current chart structure, combined with growing institutional demand and favorable on-chain fundamentals, supports a bullish outlook for the asset. Although short-term volatility and resistance levels may delay the path forward, the long-term trajectory toward $10,000 remains technically and fundamentally sound.
