Thomas Daniels
Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin (BTC) for several months, with the ETH/BTC pair hitting a 3.5-year low on September 18, a level not seen since 2021. While Bitcoin’s price action has been mostly stagnant, several market watchers anticipate a potential breakout to a new all-time high in Q4. In contrast, expectations for Ether are more muted. Polymarket’s predictions place an 85% chance that Ethereum will not reach a new all-time high in 2024.
Yet, despite the downbeat forecasts, Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, in a blog post on September 17, suggested that Ether could present a contrarian investment opportunity in the coming months. The crucial question remains: can Ether reverse its downward trend against Bitcoin, or will it continue to underperform?
ETH/BTC Weekly Technical Analysis
The long-term ETH/BTC chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating market indecision. Bulls are holding the support line while bears maintain a strong resistance at the top of the triangle. Both the moving averages are sloping down, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the oversold zone, underscoring bearish dominance. Should the pair fall to the support line, buyers are likely to step in.
If the price rebounds and breaks above the moving averages, the pair could remain within the triangle for an extended period. A breakout above the triangle’s resistance offers a potential target of 0.18 BTC, surpassing the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
ETH/BTC Daily Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been trading within a descending channel, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, a bullish divergence in the RSI and a flattening 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.04 BTC signal that selling pressure might be waning.
A decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.04 BTC could initiate a move toward the channel’s downtrend line, suggesting a potential trend reversal. On the downside, a break below 0.038 BTC could push the pair toward the lower support line of the descending channel.
Conclusion
While Ethereum has underperformed against Bitcoin, the technical outlook shows signs of stabilization. The ETH/BTC pair could be approaching a critical juncture, where a potential breakout might pave the way for a trend reversal. For now, Ether investors are watching closely for key technical signals that could shift the momentum back in their favor.
