Thomas Daniels
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), currently hovering around $2,411, has triggered a two‑week “death cross”—its first since the 2022 crypto crash. Historically, such a crossover, where the 20‑period exponential moving average (EMA) dips below the 50‑period EMA, has presaged approximately a 40% slide in ETH’s value.
The pattern unfolding now mirrors mid‑2022: ETH first formed a pronounced local peak, then entered a multi‑month consolidation before breaching both EMAs. During that period, the token swung beneath the 20‑EMA, tested the 50‑EMA as resistance, then progressively declined—a dynamic we’re seeing again this June. Failure to reclaim these moving averages leaves ETH vulnerable, with potential downside toward $1,835—an earlier Fibonacci support zone from the 2021–2022 timeframe.
Conversely, bullish indicators are emerging. Since May, ETH has experienced its most significant trading volume since the bear‑market rebound of mid‑2022. Additionally, Ethereum investment vehicles have recorded inflows totaling $2.43 billion this year, contributing to a $14.29 billion asset base—levels unseen since 2021. On-chain metrics reinforce this optimism: on June 24, daily Ethereum transactions surged to 1.45 million, the highest since January 2024, driven by heightened demand across DeFi, layer‑2 protocols, staking, and DApps.
Hence, while technicals suggest elevated near‑term risk, sustained volume, network activity, and capital inflows may validate the bullish case. A breakout above the 20‑ and 50‑period EMAs—particularly reclaiming them as support—could propel ETH toward the $3,500–$4,000 Fibonacci target range.
