David Edwards
Amid China’s economic deceleration, global trade relationships—especially with Southeast Asia and Latin America—are poised for a significant shift. This outlook was discussed by Ning Leng, an assistant professor at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy, during a U.S. Department of State foreign press briefing. Leng provided critical insights into how China’s internal economic challenges could reshape its international investment strategies.
China’s Economic Transformation and Trade Realignment
China’s once-booming economy has reached a pivotal point. “This year, China’s economy continues to slow down. Measures of factory output, consumption, and investment all slowed more than expected,” Leng noted. As China’s current growth model loses steam, a realignment in its trade and investment priorities is expected.
China is likely to increase investments in the Global South, targeting infrastructure development and resource acquisition. Southeast Asia and Latin America, in particular, are expected to benefit from China’s need to export overcapacity in sectors like construction materials and to secure essential natural resources such as lithium and nickel for its manufacturing industries.
Resource Acquisition and Geopolitical Impact
As China seeks to sustain its industrial base, it is expected to intensify resource extraction efforts in resource-rich nations. The demand for agricultural imports, particularly protein and cereals, is also anticipated to rise due to China’s shrinking arable land. In this context, South America will likely emerge as a key trade partner.
On the geopolitical front, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to increase, particularly in middle-income nations with expanding consumer markets. This focus on FDI could lead to heightened competition with Western economies, especially in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles, electronics, and renewable energy. Leng emphasized, “China will seek stable markets with a robust middle class to sell its products and strengthen its global standing.”
The Shift in Supply Chains and Global Strategy
One of the most significant consequences of China’s economic slowdown is the potential shift in global supply chains. As businesses reassess risks associated with China’s evolving economic landscape, regions like Southeast Asia may see an increase in manufacturing and trade as companies diversify away from China.
Additionally, the stagnation in China’s real estate sector, which previously contributed 25% to its GDP, will drive the export of overcapacity, particularly to emerging markets. As China navigates these internal challenges, the Global South is set to become increasingly crucial in its economic strategy.
Leng concluded by stating that Southeast Asia will remain China’s primary focus within the developing world, while Latin America will grow in importance, becoming China’s second-largest region for trade and investment
