Thomas Daniels
President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has drawn attention to a surge in prediction market activity speculating that the country’s Bitcoin reserves could reach $1 billion by the end of 2025. The primary focus is on Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market, where odds of this milestone being reached before November recently climbed from 20% to 38%.
Shortly after Bukele’s post on X, competing platform Polymarket launched a similar market. As of now, it estimates a 43% chance that El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings will exceed $1 billion by December 2025.
Kalshi began tracking these odds in mid-August. Initially, the “before December 2025” bet hovered around 24%, while “before November 2025” remained near 18%. After surging to 38%, the November probability declined to approximately 27%, while the December forecast stabilized near 35%.
Polymarket responded swiftly, launching its own version just hours after Bukele’s post, asking: “Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?”
As of publication, representatives of Kalshi and Polymarket have not responded to inquiries regarding their market listing policies.
Underlying Controversy Over Bitcoin Strategy
The enthusiasm around El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings comes amid continued debate over the country’s digital asset strategy. In July, officials from the central bank and Ministry of Finance stated that Bitcoin purchases had ceased following a $1.4 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Contrary to these official statements, both President Bukele and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office have continued to post updates about new acquisitions. The country’s Bitcoin reserves are currently reported at 6,282 BTC—valued at approximately $709 million.
Requests for clarification from Juan Carlos Reyes, head of the National Commission on Digital Assets, and other officials have so far gone unanswered.
Meanwhile, the broader prediction market space is gaining momentum. Former Kalshi and Polymarket executive Toni Gemayel recently secured $15 million in funding for his new venture, Clearing Company, with backing from investors including Coinbase Ventures.
