Thomas Daniels
Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a textbook consolidation pattern after failing to break $120,000—a key resistance level—suggesting a potential pause before the next bullish leg. Technical indicators confirm that, despite the stalemate, buyers remain firmly in control.
Persistent Selling at $120K
Attempts to breach the $120,000 threshold have repeatedly faltered, evidenced by long upper wicks on intra‑day candlesticks. However, BTC maintains its footing, signaling that demand remains stable as bulls prepare for the next push upward.
ETF Inflows Signal Bullish Momentum
According to Farside Investors, U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds amassed $799.4 million in inflows on Wednesday—marking a tenth straight day of inflows. Since July 2, investors have infused over $5.2 billion into BTC ETFs, underscoring robust institutional appetite.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels and Scenarios
- Upside Case: A decisive break above the $120,000–$123,218 resistance band could propel Bitcoin toward the next targets: an intermediate rally to ~$135,729, followed by an extended move to the $150,000 pattern target.
- Neutral/Range-Bound Case: With the 20-day exponential moving average (~$113,528) flattening and RSI hovering near mid-range, expect BTC to oscillate between $115,000 and $123,218 in a consolidation phase.
- Risk Scenario: Should BTC dip below $115,000 and breach the neckline support at $110,530, downside pressure could intensify, potentially retesting ~$105,000—a level that bulls are likely to defend vigorously.
Summary:
BTC’s current consolidation under $120,000 is not a sign of weakness but a healthy pause, bolstered by strong ETF inflows. A breakout above $120,000 followed by a flight toward $135K would reaffirm the broader uptrend. A breakdown, however, could shift momentum temporarily toward the bears.
