Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Increase Risk Exposure as Realized Cap Jumps by $6B

Bitcoin short-term holders are “likely taking on more risk” as long-term investors appear to lock in profits, according to recent insights from a crypto analyst. Despite a lackluster start to October, optimism among short-term holders has grown, marking a $6 billion surge in their realized capitalization in the past week.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Sees Sharp Increase in Q4 2024

According to CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days—are increasingly bullish. Over the past seven days, their realized cap, an on-chain metric that calculates the value of Bitcoin based on its last transaction, surged by $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion.

This spike signals increased buying activity and a more positive sentiment as the market transitions from Q3 to Q4. However, long-term holders (those holding for over 155 days) appear to be taking advantage of the recent price strength, with their realized cap decreasing by $6 billion during the same period. Taha suggests this indicates long-term investors may be taking profits or winding down their buying positions.

Analysts Divided on Bitcoin’s Next Move

October, historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, is creating a split among analysts. While some, like pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital, foresee potential short-term dips, others maintain a bullish outlook for the longer term. Trader Mags noted that Bitcoin has just closed another three-month candle above its 2021 all-time highs, suggesting potential upward momentum ahead.

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