David Edwards
Bitcoin’s retail sentiment has plunged to its lowest level since April, with traders nearly evenly divided between bullish and bearish expectations. The development marks what crypto analytics firm Santiment describes as a period of “peak FUD” — fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
According to Santiment’s marketing director Brian Quinlivan, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments on social media has fallen to 1.03 to 1. This marks the weakest sentiment ratio since early April, when global financial markets were rattled by tariff-related announcements. “With crypto in a bit of a lull, traders are showing signs of impatience and bearish sentiment,” Quinlivan noted.
Interestingly, Santiment views this data as a contrarian signal. Historically, markets have tended to move in the opposite direction of retail traders’ expectations. Retail pessimism, therefore, may serve as a precursor to a bullish reversal.
The widely watched Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also reflected this shift in sentiment, dropping to a neutral score of 54 out of 100. Just one week prior, the index stood at 61, a level classified as “Greed.” A month ago, the index was at 70, indicating elevated optimism.
On-chain data further reveals a growing divide between large and small Bitcoin holders. Over the past 10 days, 231 new wallets have amassed over 10 BTC each, while more than 37,000 wallets holding less than 10 BTC have reduced their positions. Quinlivan emphasized that such a divergence — institutional accumulation against retail liquidation — has historically aligned with bullish turnarounds.
Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $104,600, representing a 3% gain over the past two weeks. Ethereum is also showing similar accumulation behavior among major holders, even as smaller investors continue to cash out.
