Thomas Daniels
Bitcoin regained ground above the $115,000 mark on Friday, buoyed by strength in derivatives markets despite subdued spot demand and sluggish ETF inflows. The benchmark cryptocurrency rose approximately 1.5% over the past 24 hours, reflecting growing optimism that market momentum is firming.
A Shift Toward Derivatives-Led Market Structure
With spot flows softening, institutional and retail attention has increasingly pivoted toward the derivatives segment. According to recent market data, open interest in Bitcoin options surged to a new all-time high of $54.6 billion, up 26% from the beginning of September. The uptick signals renewed confidence among investors in the asset’s near-term trajectory.
The composition of options also reveals a distinct tilt toward calls over puts—an indicator that while traders remain bullish, they are also mindful of downside risks. At the same time, futures markets reflect a more balanced positioning than observed in previous speculative surges, suggesting a healthier market structure.
Volume delta bias metrics, which track the disparity between buying and selling activity, have recovered following Bitcoin’s rebound from its recent low of $108,000. This shift suggests a degree of seller exhaustion, particularly across major exchanges, and underscores the role of derivatives in absorbing downward pressure.
Critical Price Levels: Resistance at $121,000, Support at $112,000
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate above $115,000, market analysts are closely watching a supply-heavy resistance zone stretching from $116,000 to $121,000. A decisive break above this range could catalyze further upward movement, potentially toward Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs.
Conversely, support remains layered across multiple levels. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently aligns near $114,500, while the 100-day SMA anchors further support around $112,200. Another crucial technical level lies at the psychological threshold of $110,000, just above the recent monthly low of $107,200 registered on September 1.
The current price action also tests the previous monthly open around $115,700—a pivotal level that could influence short-term trend direction. Price deviations around this threshold may act as a signal for potential trend continuation or reversal.
Meanwhile, liquidation heatmaps suggest concentrated liquidity between $116,400 and $117,000. A breakout above this cluster could trigger a liquidation squeeze, forcing short positions to close and driving prices toward $120,000.
On the downside, substantial bid interest is evident around $114,700, with additional support zones extending to $112,000.
Outlook: Derivatives to Define Next Phase of BTC Price Action
Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory now hinges on its ability to maintain support above $115,000 and navigate the resistance overhead. In the absence of robust spot market flows, derivatives positioning will likely serve as the primary guidepost for price discovery.
With open interest expanding and technical indicators stabilizing, the market appears to be advancing on firmer footing. However, volatility remains elevated, and the coming days will be critical in determining whether the asset can sustain its upward momentum or retrace toward lower support levels.
