ETFs Drive Bitcoin Surge but Political and Technical Factors Also Key

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, highlights that while Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) significantly influence Bitcoin’s recent price run, a range of political, technical, and economic factors are also fueling the cryptocurrency’s momentum.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in early 2024, these products have attracted over $24 billion in net inflows, including $5.4 billion in October alone. However, Lee underscores that ETFs are not solely responsible for Bitcoin’s bullish trend, as the asset recently surged back to test the $73,000 level.

Political Momentum Ahead of U.S. Elections

Lee points to the upcoming U.S. presidential election as a key contributor to Bitcoin’s positive outlook. Both leading candidates—Donald Trump and Kamala Harris—have shown a commitment to clearer regulatory frameworks for digital assets. “With the election approaching, market expectations are leaning toward a more crypto-supportive environment under either candidate,” says Lee. Trump’s direct approach, in particular, has stirred optimism for more favorable industry regulation.

Technical Indicators Signaling Strength

On the technical front, Bitcoin’s recent “golden cross”—where the 50-day moving average surpassed the 200-day moving average on October 27—signals a bullish trajectory, according to Lee. This indicator is often seen as a harbinger of continued price appreciation, contributing to investor confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term potential.

Economic Events in November to Shape Bitcoin’s Course

Lee also outlines several pivotal economic events in November that could impact Bitcoin’s performance. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on November 7 could be especially influential. “A potential 25-basis-point rate cut may improve macroeconomic liquidity, likely benefiting crypto assets,” he notes, adding that this could ease the recent upward pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields.

Additionally, he points to Bitcoin futures metrics, with CME’s BTC open interest reaching an all-time high, a signal of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. If Microsoft’s rumored acquisition of Bitcoin proceeds, Lee anticipates it could act as a substantial endorsement of Bitcoin’s role in the institutional investment landscape.

Summary

Although ETFs have added significant liquidity to the Bitcoin market, a combination of favorable political developments, bullish technical signals, and pivotal economic events are propelling Bitcoin’s current momentum. Lee remains cautiously optimistic, noting that while market fluctuations are likely, Bitcoin’s broader trajectory could continue upward amid sustained institutional and retail demand.

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