Bitcoin Surges on Supply Shock, Not Trump’s Win, Analysts Say

While the election of Donald Trump has added a fresh catalyst for Bitcoin, experts argue it’s not the primary driver behind the cryptocurrency’s recent price surge. Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, pointed to a post-halving supply shock as the main factor impacting Bitcoin’s price. In a Nov. 11 post on X, Myers explained, “Yes, the incoming Bitcoin-friendly administration has provided a recent catalyst, but that’s not the main story here.” Instead, he emphasized, “The main story here is that we are 6+ months post-halving.”

Bitcoin’s April halving event slashed block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin supply. Myers explained that this halving effect has now created a “supply shock,” where available supply is insufficient to meet current demand, necessitating a price adjustment. This limited supply has intensified demand, especially as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched earlier this year are absorbing substantial quantities. For example, on Nov. 11, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of approximately 13,940 BTC in a single day—an amount far surpassing the 450 BTC mined that day.

“The only way to restore equilibrium is for prices to rise,” Myers added, suggesting this pattern could lead to a market bubble. “It may sound crazy to say there will be a reliable and predictable bubble every four years, but no other asset undergoes a supply cut like Bitcoin’s halving.”

Myers’ view is echoed by on-chain analyst James Check, who compared Bitcoin’s market dynamics to gold. He noted that, unlike gold—which has a market cap gain of $6 trillion this year and continues to produce new supply—Bitcoin is “absolutely scarce,” with 94% of its total supply already mined or lost.

Meanwhile, financier Anthony Scaramucci underscored the broader strategic appeal of Bitcoin, hinting that the U.S. may develop a national Bitcoin reserve as other nations and institutions ramp up investments. For those not yet invested, Scaramucci advised that it’s “still early.”

With just 1.2 million BTC left to mine, Bitcoin’s scarcity and anticipated demand suggest continued upward pressure on price, underscoring the ongoing impact of the post-halving cycle on market dynamics.

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