Bitcoin ETF Outflows Exceed $300M as Analysts Warn of Critical Price Levels

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. witnessed outflows surpassing $300 million this week, as global macroeconomic events fueled investor caution regarding Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Between October 1 and 3, approximately $388.4 million exited 12-spot Bitcoin ETFs, following a September surge of over $1.1 billion in inflows. This wave of outflows coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, which saw Bitcoin dip to a weekly low of $60,047. While the release of favorable U.S. payroll data on October 4 provided a temporary market boost, lifting Bitcoin back to $62,000, ETF inflows of $25.59 million were insufficient to offset the damage caused by the three-day selloff.

Despite three consecutive weeks of inflows totaling $1.91 billion since mid-September, Bitcoin ETFs ended the first week of October in negative territory, with net outflows of $301.54 million, according to SoSoValue. Among ETF products, Bitwise’s BITB led the recovery with $15.29 million in inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK/21Shares’ ARKB attracted $13.63 million and $5.29 million, respectively. Seven other Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT, saw little to no movement. Grayscale’s GBTC recorded notable outflows of $13.91 million.

Analysts Identify Key Price Levels

In addition to ETF market volatility, selling pressure emerged from Bitcoin miners. Crypto analyst Ali revealed that miners offloaded around $143 million in Bitcoin since September 29. Ali also noted that Bitcoin has been trading below the short-term holders’ realized price of $63,000—a level that, if not regained, could trigger further sell-offs as investors seek to minimize losses.

Another analyst, Immortal, suggested a slightly higher short-term target of $64,000, signaling a potential bullish reversal if this resistance is breached. Despite near-term uncertainty, long-term forecasts remain optimistic, with experts anticipating Bitcoin’s historical Q4 performance and potential U.S. interest rate cuts to push prices toward $72,000 by year-end.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,200, reflecting a 5% decline over the past week. Market sentiment, however, showed signs of improvement, with the Fear and Greed Index rising to 49 from a previous 41, suggesting cautious optimism among investors.

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