David Edwards
ARK Invest has raised its bull case price estimate for Bitcoin to $2.4 million by the end of 2030 in a daring reassessment of its long-term view. Increased hopes for institutional participation, the rising recognition of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” and its potential as a financial haven in developing nations are all reflected in this updated projection.
The asset manager’s bear and base case targets have also been raised to $500,000 and $1.2 million, respectively, from the $300,000 and $710,000 estimates that were previously made public in February, according to a report published on April 24 by ARK research analyst David Puell.
The projections are based on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), assumed market penetration rates across various use cases, and its constrained supply model. The forecast contemplates a scenario in which Bitcoin captures up to 6.5% of a $200 trillion financial market—excluding gold—under optimal institutional adoption conditions.
Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Asset and Digital Gold
Puell pointed out that institutional inflows are the main source of ARK’s bullish outlook. At the same time, Bitcoin’s growing reputation as a type of digital gold is crucial. According to ARK’s projection, by 2030, Bitcoin might account for as much as 60% of the $18 trillion market value of gold.
The potential of Bitcoin to serve as a store of value in areas where currency instability is a problem is the third important factor. Puell emphasized the growing popularity of Bitcoin in emerging nations as a hedge against inflation and monetary devaluation in this environment. This use case accounts for 13.5% of the firm’s bull case valuation.
In its valuation model, ARK also took into account the effects of corporate and sovereign Bitcoin treasury plans as well as the growth of financial services centered around Bitcoin.
Consequences of the $2.4M Forecast
With a projected total circulating supply of 20.5 million coins by 2030, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would rise to $49.2 trillion if it hit the $2.4 million threshold. With a valuation that surpasses the current GDP of both China and the United States combined, Bitcoin would surpass gold’s $22.5 trillion market capitalization as the greatest asset class globally.
Even ARK’s more cautious projections suggest aggressive expansion: to reach $500,000 or $1.2 million, respectively, compounded annual growth rates of roughly 32% and 53% would be needed—numbers that are uncommon for trillion-dollar assets.
