Upcoming economic events 9 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:00		2 points	RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks	———	———
01:00		3 points	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	4.75%	5.25%
01:00		2 points	RBNZ Rate Statement	———	———
08:30		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
12:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	1.900M	3.889M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.840M
15:00		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
16:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	3.2%	3.2%
17:00		3 points	10-Year Note Auction	———	3.648%
18:00		3 points	FOMC Meeting Minutes	———	———
22:00		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 9, 2024

1. RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (00:00 UTC):
   Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent’s remarks may provide insights into the RBA’s outlook on inflation, economic growth, and future monetary policy.
2. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (01:00 UTC):
   The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s key interest rate decision. Forecast: 4.75%, Previous: 5.25%. A cut would signal dovish policy, while maintaining the rate could reflect caution over inflation.
3. RBNZ Rate Statement (01:00 UTC):
   Accompanies the interest rate decision, providing the RBNZ’s rationale and guidance on future monetary policy.
4. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (08:30 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson may offer insights into the ECB’s views on inflation and potential future rate moves in the Eurozone.
5. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (12:00 UTC):
   Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, could provide market-relevant insights into future US monetary policy, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
   Measures weekly changes in crude oil stockpiles. Forecast: 1.900M, Previous: 3.889M. A larger-than-expected build would weigh on oil prices, while a decline could support them.
7. Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC):
   Measures changes in stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Previous: 0.840M. Changes here are significant for US oil pricing dynamics.
8. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (15:00 UTC):
   John Williams, President of the New York Fed, will offer his perspective on inflation and interest rates, which could affect market expectations of future policy changes.
9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (16:00 UTC):
   An updated estimate of US GDP growth for Q3. Previous: 3.2%. Any revision upward or downward will influence market sentiment on economic strength.
10. US 10-Year Note Auction (17:00 UTC):
    The auction of 10-year Treasury notes. Previous yield: 3.648%. Higher yields could reflect rising inflation expectations or increased borrowing costs.
11. FOMC Meeting Minutes (18:00 UTC):
    The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, which provide detailed insights into the Fed’s thinking on inflation, economic growth, and future interest rate decisions.
12. FOMC Member Daly Speaks (22:00 UTC):
    Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, may provide further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook and views on inflation and employment.

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Market Impact Analysis

• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Rate Statement:
  If the RBNZ cuts rates, it would likely weaken the NZD, signaling concerns over slower economic growth or inflation risks. If the rate is held at 5.25%, it would indicate that inflation concerns remain a priority, supporting the NZD.
• ECB & FOMC Speeches (Elderson, Bostic, Williams, Daly):
  These speeches will offer guidance on future monetary policy. Hawkish comments could strengthen the EUR and USD, while dovish remarks may signal caution and weigh on these currencies.
• US Crude Oil Inventories:
  A larger-than-expected build in oil inventories would put downward pressure on crude oil prices, signaling weaker demand. A decline in inventories would support prices by indicating stronger consumption.
• US 10-Year Note Auction & FOMC Meeting Minutes:
  Higher yields from the 10-year note auction would support the USD by reflecting inflation expectations or rising borrowing costs. The FOMC minutes will be closely watched for clues about future interest rate hikes, potentially boosting market volatility depending on their tone.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate:
  A higher estimate would reinforce expectations of a strong US economy, supporting the USD. A downward revision could introduce concerns about slowing growth, weighing on the dollar.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by central bank decisions and speeches, US oil inventory data, and key insights into the Federal Reserve’s outlook from the meeting minutes. The RBNZ rate decision and FOMC minutes are expected to be major market movers.

Impact Score: 8/10, as central bank commentary, oil inventories, and GDP growth estimates are critical for shaping market expectations around monetary policy and economic health.