Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (May) | ———- | 0.1% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | CPI (YoY) (May) | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | PPI (YoY) (May) | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| 03:00 | | 2 points | Exports (YoY) (May) | 5.0% | 8.1% |
| 03:00 | | 2 points | Imports (YoY) (May) | -0.9% | -0.2% |
| 03:00 | | 2 points | Trade Balance (USD) (May) | 101.10B | 96.18B |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Elderson Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 15:00 |  | 2 points | NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (May) | ———- | 3.6% |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 3.8% | 3.8% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 9, 2025
China
1. CPI (YoY & MoM) (May) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast (YoY): -0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
- Previous MoM: +0.1%
- Market Impact:
- Persistent deflation would raise concerns over weak domestic demand, potentially prompting policy easing by the PBoC.
- Negative inflation surprises may pressure CNY and regional risk sentiment.
2. PPI (YoY) (May) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: -3.1% | Previous: -2.7%
- Market Impact:
- Deepening producer deflation reflects cost-side weakness in industry, reinforcing deflation risks.
3. Exports & Imports (YoY) (May) – 03:00 UTC
- Forecast Exports: +5.0% | Previous: +8.1%
- Forecast Imports: -0.9% | Previous: -0.2%
- Market Impact:
- Slowing export growth and falling imports signal cooling global and domestic demand.
- Negative surprise could pressure commodity prices and AUD/NZD.
4. Trade Balance (USD) (May) – 03:00 UTC
- Forecast: $101.10B | Previous: $96.18B
- Market Impact:
- A higher trade surplus may reflect weak domestic consumption rather than strong trade dynamics.
Eurozone
5. ECB’s Elderson Speaks – 09:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Remarks will be assessed for post-rate cut policy guidance and inflation concerns.
- Hawkish tone could support EUR; dovish tone may pressure it.
United States
6. NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (May) – 15:00 UTC
- Previous: 3.6%
- Market Impact:
- A decline would support Fed dovish stance; a rise could fuel concerns over inflation persistence.
7. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC
- Forecast & Previous: 3.8%
- Market Impact:
- Stable strong growth estimate may reduce pressure for immediate Fed cuts, potentially supporting USD and Treasury yields.
Market Impact Analysis
- Focus is squarely on China’s inflation and trade data. Evidence of deflation and softening trade could increase calls for policy stimulus.
- U.S. consumer inflation expectations and GDPNow will guide views on Fed direction and growth resilience.
- EUR volatility may rise depending on Elderson’s remarks, especially after the ECB’s recent rate decision.
Overall Impact Score: 7/10
Key Focus:
This session will provide insight into the global deflation narrative through China’s CPI/PPI, as well as early U.S. inflation expectations. Combined, these events will shape sentiment around global demand, central bank actions, and currency trends. Moderate volatility is expected in CNY, AUD, USD, and EUR.
