Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | Building Approvals (MoM) (May) | 3.2% | -4.1% |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (Jun) | ———- | -0.2% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | CPI (YoY) (Jun) | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | PPI (YoY) (Jun) | -3.2% | -3.3% |
| 02:00 |  | 3 points | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3.25% | 3.25% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | RBNZ Rate Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 10:45 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 11:00 | | 2 points | ECB’s De Guindos Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 14:30 |  | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 3.845M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | -1.493M |
| 17:00 | | 3 points | 10-Year Note Auction | ———- | 4.421% |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | FOMC Meeting Minutes | ———- | ———- |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 9, 2025
Asia – Australia, China, New Zealand
Australia – Building Approvals (MoM, May) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: 3.2% (previous –4.1%)
- Impact: A rebound in approvals suggests stabilization in construction; supports AUD and Australian equities.
China – CPI & PPI (Jun) – 01:30 UTC
- CPI YoY: –0.1% (same as previous)
- PPI YoY: –3.2% (prev –3.3%)
- Impact: Deflationary pressures continue. Persistent weak inflation data may prompt easing from PBoC, pressuring CNY and supporting risk sentiment globally.
New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 02:00 UTC
- Forecast: 3.25% (same as previous)
- Impact: No change expected, but any dovish language in the RBNZ Rate Statement could weigh on NZD. Hawkish signals would boost it.
Europe – ECB Commentary
ECB’s Lane – 10:45 UTC
ECB’s De Guindos – 11:00 UTC
- Impact: Speeches offer clues about the ECB’s inflation outlook and policy bias. Dovish tone may pressure EUR; hawkish tone could strengthen it, especially post-CPI stability.
United States – Energy, Bonds & Fed Minutes
Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 UTC
- Previous: +3.845M
- Cushing Stocks: –1.493M
- Impact: Large builds can suppress oil prices; draws may lift oil and inflation-sensitive sectors.
10-Year Note Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 4.421%
- Impact: Demand metrics will affect bond yields and investor risk appetite. Weak demand could lift yields and hurt tech and rate-sensitive assets.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC
- Expected: 2.6% (same)
- Impact: Confirms steady growth; keeps pressure off aggressive Fed easing. Neutral-to-positive for USD.
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 18:00 UTC
- Impact: The most critical event of the day. Insight into internal Fed discussions on inflation, labor, and rate path will drive market direction for USD, Treasuries, and equities.
Market Impact Analysis
- FOMC Minutes dominate with potential to recalibrate market expectations for U.S. rates and liquidity conditions.
- China’s inflation readings are key for gauging deflation risks globally and China’s stimulus outlook.
- RBNZ tone and Australian housing data will influence AUD and NZD, especially during Asia trading hours.
- Oil inventories and Treasury auctions add layers of volatility for commodities and fixed income.
Overall Impact Score: 9/10
Key Watchpoints:
- FOMC Minutes: Look for any hawkish/dovish divergence—major catalyst for U.S. markets.
- Chinese CPI/PPI: Persistent deflation could signal broader demand issues—important for global growth sentiment.
- RBNZ stance: Any surprise tone shift can affect AUD/NZD crosses.
- Oil and Bonds: Real-time market sentiment gauges for inflation and risk appetite.
