Upcoming economic events 9 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)	1.0%	0.6%
00:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Nov)	5.620B	5.953B
01:30		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Dec)	———-	-0.6%
01:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Dec)	0.1%	0.2%
01:30		2 points	PPI (YoY) (Dec)	-2.4%	-2.5%
09:00		2 points	ECB Economic Bulletin	———-	———-
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,844K
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	210K	211K
14:00		2 points	FOMC Member Harker Speaks	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.7%	2.7%
18:35		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———-	———-
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,852B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Nov)	-0.9%	2.9%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Nov)	-0.8%	-1.3%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 9, 2025

Australia (00:30 UTC)

1. Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov):
   • Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.6%.
     Indicates consumer spending trends. A strong figure supports the AUD as it signals robust economic activity.
2. Trade Balance (Nov):
   • Forecast: 5.620B, Previous: 5.953B.
     Measures the net difference between exports and imports. A higher surplus supports AUD strength.

China (01:30 UTC)

3. CPI (MoM) (Dec):
   • Previous: -0.6%.
     Reflects monthly changes in consumer prices, providing insight into inflation dynamics.
4. CPI (YoY) (Dec):
   • Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%.
     A measure of annual inflation; deviations could impact commodities and risk sentiment.
5. PPI (YoY) (Dec):
   • Forecast: -2.4%, Previous: -2.5%.
     Producer inflation data; a less negative figure could indicate easing deflationary pressures in industrial prices.

Eurozone (09:00 UTC)

6. ECB Economic Bulletin:
   A detailed report providing insights into the ECB’s economic outlook, influencing EUR sentiment.

United States (13:30 to 21:30 UTC)

7. Continuing Jobless Claims:
   • Previous: 1,844K.
     Indicates ongoing labor market stability; a decline signals strength.
8. Initial Jobless Claims:
   • Forecast: 210K, Previous: 211K.
     A key indicator of new unemployment filings; a lower figure reflects a healthy labor market.
9. FOMC Member Harker Speaks (14:00 UTC):
   Could provide hints about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.
10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (18:00 UTC):

• Previous: 2.7%.
  Real-time GDP growth estimates impact USD sentiment.

11. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (18:35 UTC):
    Statements may provide clues about Fed policy and inflation views.
12. Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):

• Previous: 6,852B.
  Tracks changes in the Fed’s monetary operations, influencing financial conditions.

Japan (23:30 UTC)

13. Household Spending (MoM) (Nov):

• Forecast: -0.9%, Previous: 2.9%.
  A measure of monthly changes in consumer expenditure.

14. Household Spending (YoY) (Nov):

• Forecast: -0.8%, Previous: -1.3%.
  Annual consumer spending trends, reflecting household economic confidence.

Market Impact Analysis

1. AUD Impact:
   • Positive retail sales and trade balance figures support AUD strength, while weaker data could weigh on the currency.
2. CNY Impact:
   • Stable or improving CPI and PPI figures would benefit global risk sentiment and commodity-linked assets.
3. EUR Impact:
   • Insights from the ECB Economic Bulletin could influence rate expectations and EUR performance.
4. USD Impact:
   • Lower jobless claims and stable GDPNow forecasts would reinforce USD strength, while dovish FOMC remarks might counterbalance.
5. JPY Impact:
   • Lower household spending figures would highlight economic softness, potentially weakening JPY.

Volatility & Impact Score

Volatility: Moderate to High.
Impact Score: 7/10, driven by labor market data, trade balance updates, and inflation metrics across key economies.