Upcoming economic events 8 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:30		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	EU Leaders Summit	———	———
15:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)	———	2.7%
15:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)	———	3.0%
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov)	———	74.1
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)	71.0	70.5
16:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	WASDE Report	———	———
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	479
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	151.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	278.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	5.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	62.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	27.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-24.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-50.3K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 8, 2024

1. ECB McCaul Speaks (09:30 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul may provide insights into the Eurozone’s financial stability and economic conditions, potentially impacting the EUR.
2. EU Leaders Summit (10:00 UTC):
   A meeting of EU leaders to discuss political and economic issues. Key topics or announcements could affect the EUR, particularly if discussions involve fiscal policy or economic growth strategies.
3. US Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov) (15:00 UTC):

• 1-Year Inflation Expectation: Previous: 2.7%.
• 5-Year Inflation Expectation: Previous: 3.0%.
  These metrics reflect consumer sentiment on inflation, which can influence USD by indicating expected price pressures.

1. US Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (Nov) (15:00 UTC):

• Consumer Expectations: Previous: 74.1.
• Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 71.0, Previous: 70.5.
  Higher readings would indicate improved consumer confidence, supporting the USD, while weaker figures suggest cautious consumer outlook.

1. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (16:00 UTC):
   Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may provide additional insights into the Fed’s perspective on inflation, economic growth, and potential interest rate adjustments.
2. WASDE Report (17:00 UTC):
   The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report provides updates on global agricultural markets, influencing commodity prices, particularly in grains.
3. US Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):

• Oil Rig Count: Previous: 479.
• Total Rig Count: Previous: 585.
  These figures track oil and gas exploration activity. Rising rig counts may indicate increased production, potentially affecting oil prices.

1. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):

• Crude Oil Net Positions: Previous: 151.9K.
• Gold Net Positions: Previous: 278.7K.
• Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 Net Positions: Reflects sentiment in equity markets.
• AUD, EUR, JPY Net Positions: Shows speculative sentiment toward respective currencies.
  Changes in positioning provide insights into market sentiment and expectations for commodities, equities, and currencies.

Market Impact Analysis

• ECB Speech & EU Leaders Summit:
  Any hawkish commentary from ECB officials or fiscal policy announcements from the EU Summit would support the EUR. Dovish or cautious statements may soften the currency.
• US Michigan Inflation Expectations & Consumer Sentiment:
  Higher inflation expectations or stronger consumer sentiment would signal economic resilience, supporting the USD by reinforcing expectations for continued consumer spending. Lower expectations would suggest softer demand, weighing on the USD.
• FOMC Bowman Speech:
  Hawkish remarks from Governor Bowman would support the USD by hinting at tighter Fed policy, while dovish commentary would suggest a cautious Fed outlook, potentially weakening the currency.
• WASDE Report:
  Changes in the USDA’s supply-demand estimates can impact global agricultural prices. A tighter supply outlook would support prices in grain and livestock markets.
• US Baker Hughes Rig Counts:
  Higher rig counts would indicate rising production, which may weigh on oil prices by increasing supply. A decline would signal tightening supply, supporting oil prices.
• CFTC Speculative Net Positions:
  Positioning data offers insights into market sentiment for major commodities, currencies, and equities, influencing prices based on demand expectations.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key focus on US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, ECB commentary, and commodity-related reports like the WASDE and Baker Hughes rig counts.

Impact Score: 6/10, with market attention on economic indicators from the US and Eurozone, as well as commodity price influences from global supply-demand estimates and speculative positioning.