Upcoming economic events 8 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	RBA Meeting Minutes	———	———
00:30		2 points	NAB Business Confidence (Sep)	———	-4
07:00		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
10:15		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
12:30		2 points	Exports (Aug)	———	266.60B
12:30		2 points	Imports (Aug)	———	345.40B
12:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Aug)	-70.60B	-78.80B
14:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.5%	2.5%
16:00		2 points	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	———	———
16:45		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	3-Year Note Auction	———	3.440%
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	-1.458M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 8, 2024

1. RBA Meeting Minutes (00:30 UTC):
   Detailed insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent monetary policy meeting. This could provide clues on future interest rate decisions and economic outlook.
2. Australia NAB Business Confidence (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   A key measure of business sentiment in Australia. Previous: -4. A negative reading suggests pessimism about economic conditions among businesses.
3. ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (07:00 UTC):
   European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel may provide commentary on monetary policy, inflation, or Eurozone economic risks.
4. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   Meetings among Eurozone finance ministers to discuss economic policies. These could impact the EUR depending on discussions around fiscal policies and economic conditions.
5. ECB McCaul Speaks (10:15 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul could offer insights into the financial stability of the Eurozone or regulatory matters.
6. US Exports (Aug) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the total value of goods and services exported from the US. Previous: $266.60B. Higher exports support economic growth.
7. US Imports (Aug) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the total value of goods and services imported into the US. Previous: $345.40B. Rising imports may indicate strong domestic demand but widen the trade deficit.
8. US Trade Balance (Aug) (12:30 UTC):
   The difference between exports and imports. Forecast: -$70.60B, Previous: -$78.80B. A smaller deficit suggests stronger export performance or weaker imports.
9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
   An estimate of US GDP growth for the third quarter. Previous: 2.5%. This indicator provides an updated forecast based on current economic data.
10. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (16:00 UTC):
    Energy market outlook from the US Energy Information Administration, which can provide insights into energy demand, supply, and price forecasts.
11. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (16:45 UTC):
    Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, may offer insights into monetary policy, particularly around inflation and interest rates.
12. US 3-Year Note Auction (17:00 UTC):
    The auction for 3-year Treasury notes. Previous yield: 3.440%. Higher yields indicate rising borrowing costs and could reflect inflationary concerns.
13. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC):
    The American Petroleum Institute reports on changes in crude oil inventories. Previous: -1.458M barrels. Lower inventories can signal stronger demand, potentially supporting oil prices.

Market Impact Analysis

• RBA Meeting Minutes & NAB Business Confidence:
  If the RBA signals further tightening, it could strengthen the AUD. A weak business confidence reading may counteract this, reflecting concerns about the domestic economy.
• ECB Speeches (Schnabel, McCaul):
  Hawkish comments from ECB officials could strengthen the EUR, while dovish remarks or concerns about economic growth may weaken it.
• US Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance):
  A narrowing trade deficit would support the USD, reflecting improved export performance or reduced imports. A larger deficit could weigh on the dollar.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate:
  A higher-than-expected GDP growth estimate would boost the USD by suggesting a strong economy, while a downward revision may weigh on sentiment.
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook & API Crude Oil Stocks:
  Any signals of tight oil supply or strong demand could boost crude oil prices, affecting energy stocks and the USD. Rising inventories may put downward pressure on prices.
• US 3-Year Note Auction:
  Higher yields in the auction may signal inflationary pressures or increased expectations of Fed rate hikes, supporting the USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with potential market movements driven by US trade data, energy market insights, and central bank commentary from the ECB and Fed. Investors will closely watch Fed speakers and US trade figures for clues on future economic policy.

Impact Score: 6/10, as key data on trade, GDP estimates, and central bank insights will shape market expectations around growth, inflation, and interest rates.