Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | NAB Business Confidence (Jun) | ———- | 2 |
| 04:30 | | 3 points | RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 3.60% | 3.85% |
| 04:30 | | 2 points | RBA Rate Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 15:00 |  | 2 points | NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun) | ———- | 3.2% |
| 16:00 | | 2 points | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | ———- | ———- |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 3-Year Note Auction | ———- | 3.972% |
| 19:00 | | 2 points | Consumer Credit (May) | 10.60B | 17.87B |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | 0.680M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 8, 2025
Asia – Australia
NAB Business Confidence (Jun) – 01:30 UTC
- Previous: 2
- Impact: Indicates modest optimism among firms. A stronger reading supports AUD and could influence RBA outlook; softness may increase expectations for easier policy.
RBA Interest Rate Decision – 04:30 UTC
- Forecast: 3.60% (previous 3.85%)
- Impact: A rate cut is widely expected. A smaller-than-expected cut or dovish statement will likely weaken the AUD; a larger cut or dovish tone may trigger a deeper depreciation.
RBA Rate Statement – 04:30 UTC
- Impact: Statement will clarify stance on inflation, growth, and future cuts. Market will react sharply to any hawkish or cautious commentary.
United States
NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun) – 15:00 UTC
- Previous: 3.2%
- Impact: Rising expectations could pressure Fed to maintain rates; moderation supports rate-cut talk and softens USD.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – 16:00 UTC
- Impact: Provides updated U.S. supply-demand balance. Bearish forecasts may pressure oil prices; bullish outlook boosts oil and energy-linked assets.
3-Year Note Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 3.972%
- Impact: Demand indicates appetite for short-dated Treasuries. Weak demand may lift yields, pressuring bonds; strong demand supports the market.
Consumer Credit (May) – 19:00 UTC
- Forecast: $10.60B (prev $17.87B)
- Impact: A slowdown signals consumer caution and slower economic growth; strong credit growth supports consumption and equities.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC
- Previous: +0.680M
- Impact: A small build may weigh on oil prices; a drawdown could trigger a rally, impacting energy stocks and inflation expectations.
Market Impact Analysis
- AUD and RBA Focus: The overnight RBA decision and statement will be key for AUD and sentiment in Asia-Pacific markets.
- U.S. inflation and credit signals: NY Fed inflation expectations combined with consumer credit data provide insight into household inflation and spending—critical for interest rate path and equities.
- U.S. Treasuries & oil: The Treasury auction and API data add depth to market liquidity and inflationary signals impacting bonds and commodities later in the day.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
Key Watchpoints:
- RBA Decision & Statement: Likely the top event—will shape AUD and risk sentiment.
- U.S. consumer credit & inflation expectations: Essential for assessing forward guidance from the Fed.
- Treasury auction & oil inventory data: Key for end-of-day volatility in bonds and energy markets.
