Upcoming economic events 8 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
13:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)	136K	146K
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,844K
13:30		2 points	Fed Waller Speaks	———-	———-
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	214K	211K
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-1.178M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-0.142M
18:00		3 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———-	4.535%
19:00		3 points	FOMC Meeting Minutes	———-	———-
20:00		2 points	Consumer Credit (Nov)	10.60B	19.24B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 8, 2025

1. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (13:15 UTC):
   • Forecast: 136K, Previous: 146K.
     Provides an early estimate of private-sector employment growth, serving as a precursor to the official nonfarm payrolls report. Higher readings typically support the USD.
2. US Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 1,844K.
     Tracks the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market stability.
3. US Fed Waller Speaks (13:30 UTC):
   Comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller may provide insights into the Fed’s future policy direction, impacting market sentiment.
4. US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 214K, Previous: 211K.
     A low figure indicates a robust labor market, often supportive of the USD.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -1.178M.
     Monitors changes in crude stockpiles, influencing oil prices and energy market dynamics.
6. US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -0.142M.
     Highlights inventory changes at the Cushing storage hub, a key delivery point for US crude.
7. US 30-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.535%.
     Auction results reflect demand for long-term US debt, impacting yields and fixed-income markets.
8. US FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00 UTC):
   Offers detailed insights into the Federal Reserve’s December meeting discussions, including inflation, growth, and rate policy. A critical event for USD traders.
9. US Consumer Credit (20:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 10.60B, Previous: 19.24B.
     Measures changes in consumer borrowing, with higher figures suggesting consumer confidence but also potential household debt risks.

Market Impact Analysis

• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change:
  • Positive Scenario: A higher-than-expected reading boosts USD and supports risk sentiment.
  • Negative Scenario: A lower-than-expected figure pressures USD and raises concerns over labor market conditions.
• US Jobless Claims:
  • Positive Scenario: Lower claims support a strong labor market narrative, benefiting USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Higher claims may signal weakness, weighing on USD.
• Crude Oil Inventories:
  • Positive Scenario: Drawdowns support oil prices, benefiting energy-linked currencies.
  • Negative Scenario: Inventory builds pressure oil prices downward.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes:
  • Positive Scenario: Hawkish signals (e.g., tighter monetary policy) support USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Dovish commentary (e.g., concerns about growth) weighs on USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility: High, with labor market data and FOMC minutes likely driving market movements.

Impact Score: 8/10, due to the significance of employment data and the potential for policy revelations from the Fed’s minutes.