Upcoming economic events 7 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
17:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
17:50		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———
19:00		2 points	Consumer Credit (Aug)	11.80B	25.45B
22:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Aug)	-2.6%	0.1%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Aug)	0.5%	-1.7%
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Current Account (Aug)	2.43T	280.29T
23:50		2 points	Current Account n.s.a. (Aug)	2.921T	3.193T

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 7, 2024

1. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   Discussions among Eurozone finance ministers. These meetings could influence economic policies and fiscal decisions across the Eurozone.
2. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (17:00 UTC):
   Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may offer insights into the Fed’s outlook on inflation, interest rates, and the US economy.
3. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (17:50 UTC):
   Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, may provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance regarding future interest rate hikes or economic risks.
4. US Consumer Credit (Aug) (19:00 UTC):
   Measures changes in the total value of outstanding consumer credit. Forecast: $11.80B, Previous: $25.45B. Slower growth could indicate reduced consumer spending.
5. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (22:00 UTC):
   Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, may give remarks on monetary policy, focusing on inflation and growth expectations.
6. Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Aug) (23:30 UTC):
   Year-on-year change in household spending. Forecast: -2.6%, Previous: 0.1%. A decline may indicate weaker consumer confidence and reduced economic activity.
7. Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Aug) (23:30 UTC):
   Measures month-on-month changes in household spending. Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: -1.7%. An increase signals a potential recovery in consumer demand.
8. Japan Adjusted Current Account (Aug) (23:50 UTC):
   A broad measure of Japan’s international trade and income flows, seasonally adjusted. Forecast: ¥2.43T, Previous: ¥280.29T. A higher surplus reflects strong external trade.
9. Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) (23:50 UTC):
   Tracks the balance of Japan’s international trade and financial transfers without seasonal adjustments. Forecast: ¥2.921T, Previous: ¥3.193T. A lower surplus may signal weaker trade performance.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Eurogroup Meetings:
  Outcomes from these meetings could affect the EUR, especially if there are discussions on fiscal policies or changes in economic support mechanisms.
• FOMC Speeches (Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic):
  Hawkish remarks from any of the Fed speakers may strengthen the USD, indicating future rate hikes. Dovish comments could weaken the USD by signaling caution about economic growth or inflation.
• US Consumer Credit:
  A sharp decline from the previous month could suggest weakening consumer spending, potentially softening the USD, as it would indicate slower economic momentum.
• Japan Household Spending:
  A significant year-on-year decline in household spending may weigh on the JPY, signaling weaker domestic demand. However, a positive month-on-month figure may offset this concern, suggesting a short-term rebound.
• Japan Current Account:
  A higher-than-expected current account surplus would support the JPY, indicating strong international trade and income flows. A lower surplus, particularly in the non-adjusted figure, might signal external weakness.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with the focus on Fed speeches, Japanese consumer spending, and trade data. Markets may react to insights on monetary policy from the Fed and any surprises in Japan’s household spending and current account data.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by potential shifts in expectations for US monetary policy and key Japanese economic indicators.