Upcoming economic events 7 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Sep)	5.240B	5.644B
01:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM)	4.4%	-3.9%
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Oct)	5.0%	2.4%
03:00		2 points	Imports (YoY) (Oct)	-1.5%	0.3%
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (Oct)	73.50B	81.71B
03:35		2 points	10-Year JGB Auction	———	0.871%
08:10		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
10:45		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,880K	1,862K
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	223K	216K
13:30		2 points	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)	2.6%	2.5%
13:30		2 points	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)	1.1%	0.4%
13:30		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
15:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep)	0.1%	0.5%
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.4%	2.4%
19:00		3 points	FOMC Statement	———	———
19:00		3 points	Fed Interest Rate Decision	4.75%	5.00%
19:30		3 points	FOMC Press Conference	———	———
20:00		2 points	Consumer Credit (Sep)	12.20B	8.93B
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,013B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Sep)	-0.7%	2.0%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Sep)	-1.8%	-1.9%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 7, 2024

1. Australia Trade Balance (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   Tracks the difference between exports and imports. Forecast: A$5.240B, Previous: A$5.644B. A narrower surplus would suggest slowing export activity, potentially weighing on the AUD.
2. Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures changes in the number of building permits. Forecast: 4.4%, Previous: -3.9%. An increase signals strength in construction, supporting the AUD.
3. China Exports & Imports (YoY) (Oct) (03:00 UTC):
   Exports Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 2.4%. Imports Forecast: -1.5%, Previous: 0.3%. Stronger exports indicate robust external demand, while weaker imports suggest softer domestic consumption.
4. China Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) (03:00 UTC):
   Measures the difference between exports and imports in USD. Forecast: $73.50B, Previous: $81.71B. A larger surplus would support the CNY by indicating strong trade.
5. Japan 10-Year JGB Auction (03:35 UTC):
   Tracks demand for 10-year Japanese government bonds. Higher yields indicate demand for higher returns, potentially impacting the JPY.
6. ECB’s Schnabel and Elderson Speeches (08:10 & 10:45 UTC):
   Speeches by ECB officials Isabel Schnabel and Frank Elderson could provide insights into the Eurozone’s economic outlook, influencing the EUR.
7. US Continuing & Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   Tracks unemployment benefit filings. Initial Claims Forecast: 223K, Previous: 216K. Higher claims indicate a softening labor market, potentially affecting the USD.
8. US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) (13:30 UTC):
   Productivity Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.5%. Higher productivity growth would support economic efficiency, while rising unit labor costs (Forecast: 1.1%) signal potential wage pressures.
9. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) (15:00 UTC):
   Measures changes in retail inventories, excluding autos. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.5%. A rise in inventories suggests potential weakening in consumer demand.
10. US FOMC Statement & Rate Decision (19:00 UTC):
    Forecast Rate: 4.75%, Previous: 5.00%. Any deviation would impact the USD significantly. The statement and rate decision will influence expectations for future policy direction.
11. FOMC Press Conference (19:30 UTC):
    Fed Chair’s comments during the press conference will provide further context to the rate decision, impacting market expectations for inflation and growth.
12. US Consumer Credit (Sep) (20:00 UTC):
    Measures the monthly change in consumer credit levels. Forecast: $12.20B, Previous: $8.93B. Rising credit usage suggests stronger consumer spending, supporting the USD.
13. Japan Household Spending (YoY & MoM) (Sep) (23:30 UTC):
    Measures consumer spending in Japan. YoY Forecast: -1.8%, Previous: -1.9%. Declining spending suggests weaker domestic demand, potentially weighing on the JPY.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Trade Balance & Building Approvals:
  Stronger building approvals would support the AUD, signaling resilience in housing. A smaller trade balance surplus, however, would suggest weaker export growth, potentially weighing on the currency.
• China Trade Data:
  Rising exports indicate stronger global demand, supporting risk assets, while declining imports would suggest weaker domestic demand, potentially impacting commodities and risk-sensitive currencies.
• US Jobless Claims & Labor Costs:
  Rising jobless claims or unit labor costs would signal softening in the labor market and increased wage pressures, which could influence the Fed’s policy stance.
• FOMC Statement, Rate Decision, & Press Conference:
  If the Fed maintains rates or signals a more dovish stance, this could weigh on the USD. A hawkish tone or rate hike would support the USD, emphasizing inflation control.
• Japan Household Spending:
  Declining spending reflects weaker consumer confidence, potentially softening the JPY as it suggests limited inflationary pressure.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with key attention on the FOMC statement, rate decision, and press conference. Australia’s trade data, China’s trade figures, and US labor cost metrics will also drive market sentiment, especially regarding growth expectations.

Impact Score: 8/10, as central bank guidance from the Fed and labor market data will shape short-term expectations for inflation, growth, and monetary policy across major economies.