Jeremy Oles

Published On: 06/01/2025
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Assorted cryptocurrency coins highlighting upcoming economic events.
By Published On: 06/01/2025
Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)StateImportanceEventForecastPrevious
00:30🇦🇺2 pointsBuilding Approvals (MoM) (Nov)-0.9%4.2%
03:35🇯🇵2 points10-Year JGB Auction———-1.084%
10:00🇪🇺2 pointsCore CPI (YoY) (Dec)2.7%2.7%
10:00🇪🇺3 pointsCPI (YoY) (Dec)2.4%2.2%
10:00🇪🇺2 pointsCPI (MoM) (Dec)———--0.3%
10:00🇪🇺2 pointsUnemployment Rate (Nov)6.3%6.3%
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsExports (Nov)———-265.70B
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsImports (Nov)———-339.60B
13:30🇺🇸2 pointsTrade Balance (Nov)-78.40B-73.80B
15:00🇺🇸2 pointsISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec)———-51.5
15:00🇺🇸3 pointsISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)53.252.1
15:00🇺🇸3 pointsISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec)———-58.2
15:00🇺🇸3 pointsJOLTS Job Openings (Nov)7.770M7.744M
18:00🇺🇸2 pointsAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)2.4%2.4%
21:30🇺🇸2 pointsAPI Weekly Crude Oil Stock———--1.442M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 7, 2025

  1. Australia Building Approvals (00:30 UTC):
    • Forecast: -0.9%, Previous: 4.2%.
      Tracks changes in approved building projects, providing an early indicator of construction activity. Declines may weigh on the AUD.
  2. Japan 10-Year JGB Auction (03:35 UTC):
    • Previous: 1.084%.
      Yields indicate investor demand for Japanese government bonds, reflecting market expectations for BoJ policy.
  3. Eurozone Inflation Data (10:00 UTC):
    • Core CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%.
    • CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: 2.2%.
    • CPI (MoM): Previous: -0.3%.
      Inflation data shapes expectations for ECB monetary policy. Higher-than-expected figures may strengthen the EUR.
  4. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (10:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 6.3%, Previous: 6.3%.
      Tracks labor market conditions; stable or improving rates could support the EUR.
  5. US Trade Data (13:30 UTC):
    • Trade Balance: Forecast: -78.40B, Previous: -73.80B.
      Indicates the net balance of US exports and imports, influencing USD sentiment and trade-related sectors.
  6. US ISM Non-Manufacturing Data (15:00 UTC):
    • Employment: Previous: 51.5.
    • PMI: Forecast: 53.2, Previous: 52.1.
    • Prices: Previous: 58.2.
      Gauges service sector activity, a major contributor to US GDP. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
  7. US JOLTS Job Openings (15:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 7.770M, Previous: 7.744M.
      Measures labor demand; increases signal strength in the job market, supporting the USD.
  8. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (18:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: 2.4%.
      A real-time estimate of Q4 GDP growth, impacting market confidence in the USD.
  9. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
    • Previous: -1.442M.
      Indicates US crude oil supply changes, influencing oil prices and energy sector dynamics.

Market Impact Analysis

  • Australia Building Approvals:
    • Positive Scenario: Smaller declines or surprise increases boost AUD.
    • Negative Scenario: Larger-than-expected drop weighs on AUD.
  • Eurozone Inflation and Unemployment:
    • Positive Scenario: Higher inflation supports EUR by increasing expectations for tighter ECB policy.
    • Negative Scenario: Weak data pressures the EUR.
  • US Trade and ISM Data:
    • Positive Scenario: Strong ISM and trade data highlight US economic resilience, strengthening USD.
    • Negative Scenario: Weak reports dampen USD outlook and signal slower growth momentum.
  • Crude Oil Stocks:
    • Positive Scenario: Significant inventory drawdowns support oil prices and benefit commodity-linked currencies.
    • Negative Scenario: Unexpected builds pressure oil prices downward.

Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate to high, with key drivers being Eurozone inflation and US ISM services data.

Impact Score: 7/10, as data points influence expectations for ECB and Fed monetary policy, along with broader risk sentiment.