Upcoming economic events 7 August  2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun)	11.9%	3.2%
01:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Jun)	3.180B	2.238B
03:00		2 points	Inflation Expectations (QoQ) (Q3)	———-	2.3%
03:00		2 points	Imports (YoY) (Jul)	-1.0%	1.1%
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (Jul)	105.20B	114.77B
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Jul)	5.4%	5.8%
08:00		2 points	ECB Economic Bulletin	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,950K	1,946K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	221K	218K
12:30		2 points	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)	1.9%	-1.5%
12:30		2 points	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)	1.6%	6.6%
14:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———-	———-
15:00		2 points	NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jul)	———-	3.0%
17:00		3 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———-	4.889%
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.5%	2.5%
19:00		2 points	Consumer Credit (Jun)	7.40B	5.10B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,643B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Jun)	-3.0%	4.6%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Jun)	2.8%	4.7%
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Current Account (Jun)	———-	281.81T
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Current Account	2.76T	2.82T
23:50		2 points	Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)	1.480T	3.436T

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 7, 2025

Asia-Pacific – Australia, New Zealand & China

Australia – Building Approvals (Jun) – 01:30 🇦🇺

• Expected: +11.9% (prev +3.2%)
• Impact: A strong rebound indicates renewed housing momentum. Positive for AUD and signals resilience in construction activity.

Australia – Trade Balance (Jun) – 01:30 🇦🇺

• Expected: A surplus of A$3.18 B (prev A$2.238 B)
• Impact: A larger surplus may support AUD, signaling healthy external demand and currency inflows.

New Zealand – Q3 Inflation Expectations (QoQ) – 03:00 🇳🇿

• Previous: ~2.3%
• Impact: Elevated inflation expectations reinforce an accommodative bias for the RBNZ; any drop could undercut NZD sentiment.

China – Trade Data (Jul) – 03:00 🇨🇳

• Exports: +5.4% YoY (prev 5.8%)
• Imports: –1.0% YoY (prev +1.1%)
• Trade Balance: USD 105.20 B (prev 114.77 B)
• Impact: Slight export slowdown and falling imports suggest moderating external and domestic demand; could weigh on CNY and regional risk appetite.

Europe – ECB & Policy Outlook

ECB Economic Bulletin – 08:00 UTC 🇪🇺

• Impact: Offers updated economic, fiscal, and monetary context. Markets will search for signals on future ECB rate direction. Dovish tone may press EUR, while clarity on inflation could strengthen yields.

United States – Labor, Productivity, Credit & Debt

Jobless Claims (Aug 2 week) – 12:30 UTC 🇺🇸

• Initial claims: 221K (prev 218K)
• Continuing claims: 1.95M (prev 1.946M)
• Impact: Slight increases in claims suggest emerging labor market softness. If claims continue to rise, that could push Fed expectations toward easing, weakening USD.

Productivity & Labor Costs (Q2) – 12:30 UTC 🇺🇸

• Productivity: +1.9% (prev –1.5%)
• Unit Labor Costs: +1.6% (prev +6.6%)
• Impact: Strong productivity and sharply falling labor-cost growth ease inflation concerns—dovish for the outlook on rates.

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks – 14:00 UTC 🇺🇸

• Impact: Commentary may echo signals on inflation and rate path. Dovish rhetoric could pressure yields/USD; hawkish tone may lift them.

NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul) – 15:00 UTC 🇺🇸

• Previous: 3.0%
• Impact: Expectations at or rising above 3% suggest sticky near-term inflation; supportive of sticky Fed stance.

30-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC 🇺🇸

• Previous Yield: 4.889%
• Impact: Weak demand may push yields up, pressuring long-duration assets; strong demand may ease yield curve tension.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Update – 17:00 UTC 🇺🇸

• Expected: 2.5% (prev 2.5%)
• Impact: Continued moderate growth outlook supports market risk aversion calibration and Fed policy assumptions.

Consumer Credit (Jun) – 19:00 UTC 🇺🇸

• Forecast: $7.40 B (prev $5.10 B)
• Impact: A large uptick indicates strong borrowing—supports consumption outlook; may uplift equities and USD sentiment.

Fed’s Balance Sheet Weekly Update – 20:30 UTC 🇺🇸

• Impact: Trends signal evolving liquidity conditions. A shrinking balance sheet is hawkish, likely supporting higher yields; stability may ease pressure on credit markets.

Japan – Household Spending & External Sector

Household Spending (Jun) – 23:30 UTC 🇯🇵

• MoM: –3.0% (prev +4.6%)
• YoY: +2.8% (prev +4.7%)
• Impact: Sharp monthly drop signals demand weakness and a cooling consumer. Negative pressure on JPY, equities, and policy expectations.

Japan – Current Account (Jun) – 23:50 UTC 🇯🇵

• Adjusted Current Account: ~¥281.8 T (prev ~¥282 T)
• Unadjusted: ¥1.480 T (prev ¥3.436 T)
• Impact: Sharp contraction in the unadjusted figure may weigh on JPY, but stability in adjusted account offers a mixed signal on external balance.

Market Impact Analysis

• Labor market softness and productivity gains in the U.S. strengthen the case for a dovish Fed path—key narratives for Treasury and USD pricing.
• Consumer credit jump and steady GDPNow do signal continuing economic momentum—mid-week balance for risk sentiment.
• Australia’s building and trade data reinforce AUD, while Chinese data shows fading growth support in regional equities.
• Japan’s consumption data will pressure JPY and highlight domestic demand risk.
• Energy balance sheet and yield data provide liquidity cues for bond and equity markets.

Overall Impact Score: 8.5 / 10

Key Watchpoints:

• Labor and productivity data for inflation rate path clarity.
• Tokyo consumption drop signals Japanese consumer fatigue—may influence BoJ expectations.
• Bank of Japan Outlook accentuated by dovish data could depress JPY further if confirmed.
• Policy tones from Bostic and ECB tone in the Bulletin will frame global rate expectations.