Upcoming economic events 6 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Dec)	51.4	50.5
01:45		2 points	Caixin Services PMI (Dec)	51.4	51.5
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec)	49.5	48.3
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec)	51.4	49.5
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)	56.6	54.9
14:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)	58.5	56.1
15:00		2 points	Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)	-0.3%	0.2%
18:00		2 points	3-Year Note Auction	———-	4.117%
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	247.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	247.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	27.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-63.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-68.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	2.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-68.5K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 6, 2025

1. Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 51.4, Previous: 50.5.
     PMI above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, suggesting economic resilience and potentially supporting the JPY.
2. China Caixin Services PMI (01:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 51.4, Previous: 51.5.
     An indicator of China’s services activity. Stable or improving data supports global risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
3. Eurozone HCOB PMIs (09:00 UTC):
   • Composite PMI: Forecast: 49.5, Previous: 48.3.
   • Services PMI: Forecast: 51.4, Previous: 49.5.
     Improved readings above 50 signal recovery in Eurozone economic activity, potentially boosting the EUR.
4. US S&P Global PMIs (14:45 UTC):
   • Composite PMI: Forecast: 56.6, Previous: 54.9.
   • Services PMI: Forecast: 58.5, Previous: 56.1.
     Higher PMIs reflect stronger activity in the US economy, supporting the USD and improving market sentiment.
5. US Factory Orders (15:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.2%.
     Tracks manufacturing demand. A decline would indicate weakening activity, potentially weighing on the USD.
6. US 3-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous: 4.117%.
     Yield levels provide insights into investor sentiment regarding short-term US debt and monetary policy expectations.
7. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Tracks speculative interest in commodities, equities, and currencies, influencing sentiment in respective markets.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan and China Services PMIs:
  • Positive Scenario: Higher-than-expected PMIs signal robust economic activity, supporting JPY and AUD while improving global risk appetite.
  • Negative Scenario: Weak data could pressure these currencies and dampen risk sentiment.
• Eurozone PMIs:
  • Positive Scenario: Readings above 50 strengthen the EUR by indicating economic recovery in the region.
  • Negative Scenario: Continued contraction would weigh on the EUR and signal persistent challenges.
• US PMIs and Factory Orders:
  • Positive Scenario: Strong PMI and factory orders data support the USD by highlighting resilience in US economic activity.
  • Negative Scenario: Weak data would dampen USD strength and signal slowing growth momentum.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  • Provide sentiment indicators for crude oil, gold, equities, and currencies, influencing short-term market movements.

Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate, driven by PMI data from major economies and US factory orders.

Impact Score: 6/10, as global PMIs and US data shape currency and commodity trends.