Upcoming economic events 6 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Home Loans (MoM) (Oct)	———	0.1%
10:00		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	0.9%	0.6%
10:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.4%	0.4%
13:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Nov)	———	4.0%
13:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.4%
13:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)	202K	12K
13:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Nov)	———	62.6%
13:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)	160K	-28K
13:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Nov)	———	7.7%
13:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Nov)	4.2%	4.1%
14:15		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
15:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	———	2.6%
15:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec)	———	3.2%
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec)	———	76.9
15:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)	73.1	71.8
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	478	477
18:00		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	582
20:00		2 points	Consumer Credit (Oct)	10.10B	6.00B
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	200.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	250.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	19.5K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-78.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	31.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-22.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-56.0K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 6, 2024

1. Australia Home Loans (MoM) (Oct) (00:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.1%.
     Reflects changes in the number of new home loans issued. Growth signals strength in the housing market and consumer confidence, supporting the AUD. Weak data would weigh on the currency.
2. Eurozone GDP (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
   • YoY: Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.6%.
   • QoQ: Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.4%.
     Strong GDP growth would signal economic resilience, supporting the EUR. Lower-than-expected growth could weigh on the currency.
3. US Labor Market Data (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
   • Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast: 202K, Previous: 12K.
   • Private Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast: 160K, Previous: -28K.
   • Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.1%.
   • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%.
   • Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): Previous: 4.0%.
     Labor market strength would reinforce expectations of economic resilience, supporting the USD. Weaker-than-expected data could signal economic slowing, potentially softening the currency.
4. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (15:00 UTC):
   • 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Previous: 2.6%.
   • 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Previous: 3.2%.
   • Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 73.1, Previous: 71.8.
     Improved sentiment and stable inflation expectations would support the USD by reflecting consumer confidence and price stability.
5. US Baker Hughes Rig Count (18:00 UTC):
   • Oil Rig Count: Previous: 478.
   • Total Rig Count: Previous: 582.
     Rising rig counts indicate increased oil supply, potentially pressuring oil prices, while declining counts suggest tightening supply, supporting prices.
6. US Consumer Credit (Oct) (20:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 10.10B, Previous: 6.00B.
     Higher credit growth reflects increased borrowing, signaling consumer confidence, which would support the USD. Declining credit growth could indicate caution among consumers.
7. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Tracks speculative sentiment in crude oil, gold, equities, and major currencies. Changes in positions offer insights into market expectations and potential price movements.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Home Loans:
  Strong home loan growth would signal resilience in the Australian housing market, supporting the AUD. Weak data may weigh on the currency.
• Eurozone GDP:
  Strong GDP growth would support the EUR by indicating economic stability. Lower-than-expected growth could weaken the EUR, reflecting challenges in the Eurozone economy.
• US Labor Market Data:
  Strong payroll figures and stable wage growth would reinforce USD strength by signaling robust labor market conditions. Weak labor data would suggest economic cooling, potentially softening the currency.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations:
  Improved sentiment and stable inflation expectations would signal economic resilience, supporting the USD. Weaker sentiment or rising inflation expectations could weigh on the currency.
• US Baker Hughes Rig Count & Consumer Credit:
  Rising rig counts would pressure oil prices, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Higher consumer credit growth would reflect consumer confidence, supporting the USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by US labor market data, Eurozone GDP, and Michigan consumer sentiment. OPEC updates and Baker Hughes rig counts will influence oil prices and commodity-linked currencies.

Impact Score: 8/10, with significant focus on nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and consumer sentiment shaping expectations for USD and global market sentiment.