Upcoming economic events 5 September 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Jul)	5.050B	5.589B
08:35		2 points	ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks	———	———
12:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)	143K	122K
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,870K	1,868K
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	231K	231K
12:30		2 points	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)	2.3%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)	0.9%	4.0%
13:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug)	54.1	54.3
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	55.2	55.0
14:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug)	———	51.1
14:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)	51.2	51.4
14:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug)	———	57.0
15:00		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.846M
15:00		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.668M
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,123B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)	-0.2%	0.1%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	-1.4%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 5, 2024

1. Australia Trade Balance (Jul) (01:30 UTC): Difference between exports and imports of goods and services. Forecast: 5.050B, Previous: 5.589B.
2. ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks (08:35 UTC): Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board member Tuominen, offering insights into financial regulation and banking supervision in the Eurozone.
3. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) (12:15 UTC): Measures the change in private-sector employment. Forecast: 143K, Previous: 122K.
4. US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC): Number of people receiving unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,870K, Previous: 1,868K.
5. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC): Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 231K, Previous: 231K.
6. US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) (12:30 UTC): Quarterly change in labor productivity. Forecast: +2.3%, Previous: +0.2%.
7. US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) (12:30 UTC): Quarterly change in labor costs per unit of output. Forecast: +0.9%, Previous: +4.0%.
8. US S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) (13:45 UTC): Measures overall business activity in the US. Forecast: 54.1, Previous: 54.3.
9. US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) (13:45 UTC): Measures activity in the US services sector. Forecast: 55.2, Previous: 55.0.
10. US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Employment trends in the non-manufacturing sector. Previous: 51.1.
11. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Measures activity in the US service sector. Forecast: 51.2, Previous: 51.4.
12. US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug) (14:00 UTC): Measures price changes in the service sector. Previous: 57.0.
13. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:00 UTC): Weekly change in US crude oil stocks. Previous: -0.846M.
14. US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (15:00 UTC): Weekly change in crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma. Previous: -0.668M.
15. US Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC): Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,123B.
16. Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Jul) (23:30 UTC): Monthly change in household spending. Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1%.
17. Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Jul) (23:30 UTC): Annual change in household spending. Forecast: +1.2%, Previous: -1.4%.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Trade Balance: A smaller surplus could indicate weaker exports or rising imports, potentially pressuring AUD. A larger surplus supports AUD.
• US Employment Data (ADP and Jobless Claims): Strong ADP employment and low jobless claims support USD and signal labor market strength. Higher claims may signal economic slowdown.
• US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: Rising productivity with moderate labor costs supports economic efficiency and may stabilize inflation pressures, which is positive for USD. High labor costs could raise inflation concerns.
• US PMI Data (S&P and ISM): Higher readings indicate expansion in services, supporting USD and market confidence. Lower readings suggest economic slowing.
• US Oil Inventories: Lower crude oil stocks support oil prices, signaling strong demand or lower supply. Higher inventories may pressure oil prices downward.
• Japan Household Spending: A rebound in spending indicates economic recovery, supporting JPY. Lower-than-expected spending could suggest economic caution.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, with potential reactions in equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets, especially influenced by US labor market data, PMI figures, and oil inventories.
• Impact Score: 7/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.