Upcoming economic events 5 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:45		2 points	Caixin Services PMI (Oct)	50.5	50.3
03:30		3 points	RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)	4.35%	4.35%
03:30		2 points	RBA Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
03:30		2 points	RBA Rate Statement	———	———
10:00		3 points	U.S. Presidential Election	———	———
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
13:30		2 points	Exports (Sep)	———	271.80B
13:30		2 points	Imports (Sep)	———	342.20B
13:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Sep)	-83.30B	-70.40B
14:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)	54.3	54.0
14:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)	55.3	55.2
15:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct)	———	48.1
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	53.7	54.9
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct)	———	59.4
18:00		3 points	10-Year Note Auction	———	4.066%
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.3%	2.3%
18:30		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
20:00		2 points	RBNZ Financial Stability Report	———	———
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-0.900M	-0.573M
23:50		2 points	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 5, 2024

1. China Caixin Services PMI (Oct) (01:45 UTC):
   A key measure of China’s services sector activity. Forecast: 50.5, Previous: 50.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, signaling growth in the service sector.
2. RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) (03:30 UTC):
   The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision. Forecast: 4.35%, Previous: 4.35%. Any deviation from the forecast would impact the AUD.
3. RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Rate Statement (03:30 UTC):
   Accompanies the RBA’s rate decision and provides insights into the central bank’s economic outlook and policy direction.
4. US Presidential Election (10:00 UTC):
   Voters go to the polls to elect the US president. Election outcomes often influence market volatility, with effects on the USD, equities, and global markets.
5. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   Meetings of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss economic policy. Any major announcements could affect the EUR.
6. US Trade Balance (Sep) (13:30 UTC):
   Measures the difference between exports and imports. Forecast: -$83.30B, Previous: -$70.40B. A larger deficit would indicate higher imports relative to exports, potentially weighing on the USD.
7. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (14:30 UTC):
   ECB President Christine Lagarde may provide insights into the ECB’s economic outlook and stance on inflation, potentially impacting the EUR.
8. US S&P Global Composite and Services PMI (Oct) (14:45 UTC):
   Measures of overall business and service sector activity. Forecast Composite: 54.3, Services: 55.3. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, which supports the USD.
9. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (15:00 UTC):
   Key gauge of the US services sector. Forecast: 53.7, Previous: 54.9. A decline would suggest slowing services growth, potentially weighing on the USD.
10. US 10-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
    Auction for 10-year Treasury notes. Previous yield: 4.066%. Higher yields would reflect increased borrowing costs or inflation expectations, supporting the USD.
11. RBNZ Financial Stability Report (20:00 UTC):
    Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s report on financial stability, which could impact the NZD by highlighting economic risks or the bank’s monetary policy outlook.
12. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
    Measures weekly changes in US crude oil inventories. Forecast: -0.900M, Previous: -0.573M. A larger-than-expected decline would signal stronger demand, supporting oil prices.
13. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (23:50 UTC):
    Likely from the Bank of Japan or another central bank, detailing recent policy discussions and economic outlook, potentially affecting the JPY.

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Market Impact Analysis

• China Caixin Services PMI:
  A reading above 50 would indicate expansion in China’s service sector, supporting risk sentiment and potentially commodities. A decline would signal slower growth, possibly impacting risk-sensitive assets.
• RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statements:
  Any deviation from the expected rate could significantly impact the AUD. A hawkish tone in the statements would support the AUD, while dovish commentary could weaken it.
• US Presidential Election:
  Election outcomes often lead to market volatility, with effects on the USD, US equities, and global market sentiment, as investors adjust positions based on expected policy directions.
• US Trade Balance:
  A widening deficit would suggest higher imports relative to exports, which may weigh on the USD. A narrower deficit would support the dollar.
• ECB President Lagarde Speech:
  Hawkish commentary on inflation would support the EUR, while dovish remarks might weaken it.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 10-Year Note Auction:
  A strong PMI would signal service sector resilience, supporting the USD. Higher yields in the auction would also support the USD by reflecting inflation expectations.
• RBNZ Financial Stability Report:
  Any signs of economic vulnerability or financial risk could weigh on the NZD, while a stable outlook would support it.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with key focus on the RBA’s rate decision, US presidential election, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Market reactions to ECB and RBNZ commentary will also influence currency and bond markets.

Impact Score: 8/10, driven by significant events, including the US election, central bank decisions, and key economic indicators across major economies that will shape sentiment on global economic stability and policy direction.