Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
01:45 | 2 points | Caixin Services PMI (Oct) | 50.5 | 50.3 | |
03:30 | 3 points | RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) | 4.35% | 4.35% | |
03:30 | 2 points | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | ——— | ——— | |
03:30 | 2 points | RBA Rate Statement | ——— | ——— | |
10:00 | 3 points | U.S. Presidential Election | ——— | ——— | |
10:00 | 2 points | Eurogroup Meetings | ——— | ——— | |
13:30 | 2 points | Exports (Sep) | ——— | 271.80B | |
13:30 | 2 points | Imports (Sep) | ——— | 342.20B | |
13:30 | 2 points | Trade Balance (Sep) | -83.30B | -70.40B | |
14:30 | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ——— | ——— | |
14:45 | 2 points | S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | 54.3 | 54.0 | |
14:45 | 3 points | S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) | 55.3 | 55.2 | |
15:00 | 2 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | ——— | 48.1 | |
15:00 | 3 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.7 | 54.9 | |
15:00 | 3 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct) | ——— | 59.4 | |
18:00 | 3 points | 10-Year Note Auction | ——— | 4.066% | |
18:00 | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
18:30 | 2 points | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | ——— | ——— | |
20:00 | 2 points | RBNZ Financial Stability Report | ——— | ——— | |
21:30 | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.900M | -0.573M | |
23:50 | 2 points | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ——— | ——— |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 5, 2024
- China Caixin Services PMI (Oct) (01:45 UTC):
A key measure of China’s services sector activity. Forecast: 50.5, Previous: 50.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, signaling growth in the service sector. - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) (03:30 UTC):
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision. Forecast: 4.35%, Previous: 4.35%. Any deviation from the forecast would impact the AUD. - RBA Monetary Policy Statement & Rate Statement (03:30 UTC):
Accompanies the RBA’s rate decision and provides insights into the central bank’s economic outlook and policy direction. - US Presidential Election (10:00 UTC):
Voters go to the polls to elect the US president. Election outcomes often influence market volatility, with effects on the USD, equities, and global markets. - Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
Meetings of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss economic policy. Any major announcements could affect the EUR. - US Trade Balance (Sep) (13:30 UTC):
Measures the difference between exports and imports. Forecast: -$83.30B, Previous: -$70.40B. A larger deficit would indicate higher imports relative to exports, potentially weighing on the USD. - ECB President Lagarde Speaks (14:30 UTC):
ECB President Christine Lagarde may provide insights into the ECB’s economic outlook and stance on inflation, potentially impacting the EUR. - US S&P Global Composite and Services PMI (Oct) (14:45 UTC):
Measures of overall business and service sector activity. Forecast Composite: 54.3, Services: 55.3. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, which supports the USD. - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (15:00 UTC):
Key gauge of the US services sector. Forecast: 53.7, Previous: 54.9. A decline would suggest slowing services growth, potentially weighing on the USD. - US 10-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
Auction for 10-year Treasury notes. Previous yield: 4.066%. Higher yields would reflect increased borrowing costs or inflation expectations, supporting the USD. - RBNZ Financial Stability Report (20:00 UTC):
Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s report on financial stability, which could impact the NZD by highlighting economic risks or the bank’s monetary policy outlook. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
Measures weekly changes in US crude oil inventories. Forecast: -0.900M, Previous: -0.573M. A larger-than-expected decline would signal stronger demand, supporting oil prices. - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (23:50 UTC):
Likely from the Bank of Japan or another central bank, detailing recent policy discussions and economic outlook, potentially affecting the JPY.
Market Impact Analysis
- China Caixin Services PMI:
A reading above 50 would indicate expansion in China’s service sector, supporting risk sentiment and potentially commodities. A decline would signal slower growth, possibly impacting risk-sensitive assets. - RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statements:
Any deviation from the expected rate could significantly impact the AUD. A hawkish tone in the statements would support the AUD, while dovish commentary could weaken it. - US Presidential Election:
Election outcomes often lead to market volatility, with effects on the USD, US equities, and global market sentiment, as investors adjust positions based on expected policy directions. - US Trade Balance:
A widening deficit would suggest higher imports relative to exports, which may weigh on the USD. A narrower deficit would support the dollar. - ECB President Lagarde Speech:
Hawkish commentary on inflation would support the EUR, while dovish remarks might weaken it. - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 10-Year Note Auction:
A strong PMI would signal service sector resilience, supporting the USD. Higher yields in the auction would also support the USD by reflecting inflation expectations. - RBNZ Financial Stability Report:
Any signs of economic vulnerability or financial risk could weigh on the NZD, while a stable outlook would support it.
Overall Impact
Volatility:
High, with key focus on the RBA’s rate decision, US presidential election, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Market reactions to ECB and RBNZ commentary will also influence currency and bond markets.
Impact Score: 8/10, driven by significant events, including the US election, central bank decisions, and key economic indicators across major economies that will shape sentiment on global economic stability and policy direction.