Jeremy Oles

Published On: 04/06/2025
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Upcoming economic events 5 June 2025
By Published On: 04/06/2025
Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)StateImportanceEventForecastPrevious
01:30🇦🇺2 pointsTrade Balance (Apr)5.960B6.900B
01:45🇨🇳2 pointsCaixin Services PMI (May)51.050.7
12:15🇪🇺3 pointsDeposit Facility Rate (Jun)2.00%2.25%
12:15🇪🇺2 pointsECB Marginal Lending Facility———-2.65%
12:15🇪🇺2 pointsECB Monetary Policy Statement———-———-
12:15🇪🇺3 pointsECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)2.15%2.40%
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsContinuing Jobless Claims1,910K1,919K
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsExports (Apr)———-278.50B
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsImports (Apr)———-419.00B
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsInitial Jobless Claims236K240K
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsNonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)-0.8%-1.7%
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsTrade Balance (Apr)-67.60B-140.50B
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsUnit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)5.7%2.0%
12:45🇪🇺3 pointsECB Press Conference———-———-
14:15🇪🇺2 pointsECB President Lagarde Speaks———-———-
17:00🇺🇸2 pointsAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)4.6%4.6%
17:30🇺🇸2 pointsFOMC Member Harker Speaks———-———-
20:30🇺🇸2 pointsFed’s Balance Sheet———-6,673B
23:30🇯🇵2 pointsHousehold Spending (MoM) (Apr)-0.8%0.4%
23:30🇯🇵2 pointsHousehold Spending (YoY) (Apr)1.5%2.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 5, 2025

Australia

1. Trade Balance (Apr) – 01:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 5.960B | Previous: 6.900B
  • Market Impact:
    • A lower trade surplus may weigh on AUD, indicating reduced export momentum or rising imports.
    • A surprise increase could support AUD.

China

2. Caixin Services PMI (May) – 01:45 UTC

  • Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.7
  • Market Impact:
    • Above-50 reading shows continued expansion in services, supporting China-linked currencies (AUD, NZD) and risk sentiment.
    • A surprise drop below 50 would raise concerns over demand-side weakness.

Eurozone

3. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) – 12:15 UTC

  • Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.40%

4. ECB Deposit Facility Rate – Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.25%

5. ECB Marginal Lending Facility – Previous: 2.65%

6. ECB Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference – 12:15 & 12:45 UTC

7. ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 14:15 UTC

  • Market Impact:
    • A rate cut is widely expected. Market focus is on the language of the statement and press conference.
    • Dovish guidance could weaken the euro and support bonds.
    • A cautious or data-dependent tone may moderate the reaction.

United States

8. Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 236K | Previous: 240K

9. Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 1,910K | Previous: 1,919K
  • Market Impact:
    • Lower claims suggest labor market resilience, potentially limiting Fed easing expectations.
    • A rise would signal softening employment.

10. Trade Balance (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: -67.60B | Previous: -140.50B

11. Exports & Imports (Apr) – Previous: 278.50B / 419.00B

  • Market Impact:
    • A significantly smaller deficit improves GDP outlook, supporting USD and potentially equities.

12. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: -1.7%

13. Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: +5.7% | Previous: +2.0%
  • Market Impact:
    • Productivity decline and rising labor costs reflect inflationary wage pressure, which may limit Fed flexibility.

14. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC

  • Forecast: 4.6% | Previous: 4.6%
  • Market Impact:
    • Sustained high estimate indicates strong underlying growth, could push yields higher.

15. FOMC Member Harker Speaks – 17:30 UTC

  • Market Impact:
    • Comments on inflation and jobs will shape short-term rate expectations.

16. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

  • Previous: $6.673T
  • Market Impact:
    • A reduction supports tightening liquidity narrative.

Japan

17. Household Spending (Apr) – 23:30 UTC

  • Forecast (MoM): -0.8% | Previous: +0.4%
  • Forecast (YoY): +1.5% | Previous: +2.1%
  • Market Impact:
    • Declines may reflect consumer caution, weakening JPY and pressuring Japanese equities.
    • Surprise increases may signal demand strength, lifting sentiment.

Market Impact Analysis

  • The ECB rate cut and policy language will be the central global driver, influencing EUR, bonds, and Eurozone equities.
  • In the U.S., labor data, productivity, and trade figures will shape expectations on growth, inflation, and rate trajectory.
  • Asia-Pacific activity (Australia, China, Japan) will influence regional currencies and risk appetite, especially if Chinese services data surprise.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

Key Focus:
A major day driven by the ECB’s potential policy pivot, U.S. labor and productivity data, and China’s services performance. Combined, these reports offer broad insights into global inflation trends, central bank directions, and economic momentum. Expect high volatility in EUR, USD, JPY, AUD, and associated equities and bonds.