Upcoming economic events 5 June 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Apr)	5.960B	6.900B
01:45		2 points	Caixin Services PMI (May)	51.0	50.7
12:15		3 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Jun)	2.00%	2.25%
12:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———-	2.65%
12:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———-	———-
12:15		3 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)	2.15%	2.40%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,910K	1,919K
12:30		2 points	Exports (Apr)	———-	278.50B
12:30		2 points	Imports (Apr)	———-	419.00B
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	236K	240K
12:30		2 points	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)	-0.8%	-1.7%
12:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Apr)	-67.60B	-140.50B
12:30		2 points	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)	5.7%	2.0%
12:45		3 points	ECB Press Conference	———-	———-
14:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	4.6%	4.6%
17:30		2 points	FOMC Member Harker Speaks	———-	———-
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,673B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Apr)	-0.8%	0.4%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Apr)	1.5%	2.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 5, 2025

Australia

1. Trade Balance (Apr) – 01:30 UTC

• Forecast: 5.960B | Previous: 6.900B
• Market Impact:
  • A lower trade surplus may weigh on AUD, indicating reduced export momentum or rising imports.
  • A surprise increase could support AUD.

China

2. Caixin Services PMI (May) – 01:45 UTC

• Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.7
• Market Impact:
  • Above-50 reading shows continued expansion in services, supporting China-linked currencies (AUD, NZD) and risk sentiment.
  • A surprise drop below 50 would raise concerns over demand-side weakness.

Eurozone

3. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) – 12:15 UTC

• Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.40%

4. ECB Deposit Facility Rate – Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.25%

5. ECB Marginal Lending Facility – Previous: 2.65%

6. ECB Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference – 12:15 & 12:45 UTC

7. ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 14:15 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • A rate cut is widely expected. Market focus is on the language of the statement and press conference.
  • Dovish guidance could weaken the euro and support bonds.
  • A cautious or data-dependent tone may moderate the reaction.

United States

8. Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 236K | Previous: 240K

9. Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 1,910K | Previous: 1,919K
• Market Impact:
  • Lower claims suggest labor market resilience, potentially limiting Fed easing expectations.
  • A rise would signal softening employment.

10. Trade Balance (Apr) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -67.60B | Previous: -140.50B

11. Exports & Imports (Apr) – Previous: 278.50B / 419.00B

• Market Impact:
  • A significantly smaller deficit improves GDP outlook, supporting USD and potentially equities.

12. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: -1.7%

13. Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: +5.7% | Previous: +2.0%
• Market Impact:
  • Productivity decline and rising labor costs reflect inflationary wage pressure, which may limit Fed flexibility.

14. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC

• Forecast: 4.6% | Previous: 4.6%
• Market Impact:
  • Sustained high estimate indicates strong underlying growth, could push yields higher.

15. FOMC Member Harker Speaks – 17:30 UTC

• Market Impact:
  • Comments on inflation and jobs will shape short-term rate expectations.

16. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: $6.673T
• Market Impact:
  • A reduction supports tightening liquidity narrative.

Japan

17. Household Spending (Apr) – 23:30 UTC

• Forecast (MoM): -0.8% | Previous: +0.4%
• Forecast (YoY): +1.5% | Previous: +2.1%
• Market Impact:
  • Declines may reflect consumer caution, weakening JPY and pressuring Japanese equities.
  • Surprise increases may signal demand strength, lifting sentiment.

Market Impact Analysis

• The ECB rate cut and policy language will be the central global driver, influencing EUR, bonds, and Eurozone equities.
• In the U.S., labor data, productivity, and trade figures will shape expectations on growth, inflation, and rate trajectory.
• Asia-Pacific activity (Australia, China, Japan) will influence regional currencies and risk appetite, especially if Chinese services data surprise.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

Key Focus:
A major day driven by the ECB’s potential policy pivot, U.S. labor and productivity data, and China’s services performance. Combined, these reports offer broad insights into global inflation trends, central bank directions, and economic momentum. Expect high volatility in EUR, USD, JPY, AUD, and associated equities and bonds.