Upcoming economic events 5 July 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:40		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
12:15		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
12:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)	0.3%	0.4%
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jun)	———	4.1%
12:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)	189K	272K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Jun)	———	62.5%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)	160K	229K
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun)	———	7.4%
12:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	4.0%	4.0%
15:00		3 points	Fed Monetary Policy Report	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	———
17:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	271.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	246.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	7.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-65.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	-23.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-173.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-8.4K
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 5, 2024

1. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (US): Speech by a key Federal Reserve member.
2. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (Eurozone): Speech by a European Central Bank official.
3. US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM & YoY) (Jun): Changes in wages. Forecast: +0.3% MoM, Previous: +0.4% MoM, +4.1% YoY.
4. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): Number of new jobs. Forecast: +189K, Previous: +272K.
5. US Participation Rate (Jun): Percentage of working-age people employed or looking for work. Previous: 62.5%.
6. US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): Change in private sector jobs. Forecast: +160K, Previous: +229K.
7. US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun): Broader measure of unemployment. Previous: 7.4%.
8. US Unemployment Rate (Jun): Overall unemployment rate. Forecast: 4.0%, Previous: 4.0%.
9. Fed Monetary Policy Report (US): Report on Federal Reserve policies.
10. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Number of active oil rigs.
11. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Total number of active rigs.
12. ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Remarks from the ECB President.
13. CFTC Speculative Net Positions: Data on speculative positions in commodities and financial instruments.
14. Fed’s Balance Sheet (US): Weekly update on Federal Reserve assets.

Market Impact Analysis

• Speeches by Williams and Elderson: Expected remarks maintain stability; surprises could impact markets.
• US Earnings and Employment Data: Key indicators of wage growth and job market health; significant deviations can move markets.
• Fed Monetary Policy Report: Insights into future policies can influence market sentiment.
• Baker Hughes Rig Counts: Affects oil prices and energy sector sentiment.
• Lagarde’s Speech: Influences Eurozone markets.
• CFTC Positions: Reflects market sentiment towards various assets; impacts market behavior.
• Fed’s Balance Sheet: Stability supports confidence; changes impact expectations.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, driven by key employment data and influential speeches.
• Impact Score: 8/10, indicating significant potential for market movements, especially from US Nonfarm Payrolls and Federal Reserve communications.