Upcoming economic events 5 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Oct)	4.580B	4.609B
01:30		2 points	BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	OPEC Meeting	———	———
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———	1,907K
13:30		2 points	Exports (Oct)	———	267.90B
13:30		2 points	Imports (Oct)	———	352.30B
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	215K	213K
13:30		2 points	Trade Balance (Oct)	-75.70B	-84.40B
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	6,905B
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)	0.4%	-1.3%
23:30		2 points	Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)	-2.6%	-1.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 5, 2024

1. Australia Trade Balance (Oct) (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 4.580B, Previous: 4.609B.
     Indicates the difference between exports and imports. A higher trade surplus would signal strong external demand, supporting the AUD. A lower surplus could weigh on the currency.
2. Japan BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks (01:30 UTC):
   Comments may offer insights into the BoJ’s economic outlook or monetary policy stance. Hawkish remarks would support the JPY, while dovish tones might weaken it.
3. OPEC Meeting (10:00 UTC):
   The meeting will discuss oil production levels and global demand trends. Decisions to cut or maintain output would support oil prices, while increases in production might pressure prices. This impacts oil-dependent currencies like CAD and commodity markets.
4. US Trade Data (Oct) (13:30 UTC):
   • Exports (Oct): Previous: 267.90B.
   • Imports (Oct): Previous: 352.30B.
   • Trade Balance (Oct): Forecast: -75.70B, Previous: -84.40B.
     A narrowing deficit would indicate improving trade dynamics, supporting the USD. A widening deficit could weigh on the currency.
5. US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 215K, Previous: 213K.
   • Continuing Jobless Claims: Previous: 1,907K.
     Higher claims would signal labor market softening, potentially weakening the USD. Lower claims would suggest resilience, supporting the currency.
6. Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   Changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may provide insights into monetary policy and liquidity conditions, influencing USD sentiment.
7. Japan Household Spending (Oct) (23:30 UTC):
   • MoM: Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: -1.3%.
   • YoY: Forecast: -2.6%, Previous: -1.1%.
     A rebound in spending would suggest improving consumer confidence, supporting the JPY. Continued weakness would weigh on the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Trade Balance:
  A higher surplus would support the AUD by signaling strong demand for Australian exports. A lower surplus might reflect external challenges, weighing on the currency.
• Japan Household Spending & Nakamura Speech:
  Improved spending data would indicate stronger domestic demand, supporting the JPY. Hawkish comments from Nakamura would also boost the currency, while dovish tones or weak data could soften it.
• OPEC Meeting:
  Decisions to cut production or maintain current levels would support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD. An increase in production would pressure prices and weigh on these currencies.
• US Trade Balance & Jobless Claims:
  A narrowing trade deficit would support the USD, reflecting stronger trade dynamics. Lower jobless claims would indicate labor market strength, reinforcing USD resilience. Higher claims or a widening deficit could weigh on the currency.
• Fed’s Balance Sheet:
  Expansion or contraction of the balance sheet could signal changes in liquidity conditions or monetary policy, influencing USD sentiment.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, driven by trade data from Australia and the US, OPEC decisions impacting oil markets, and US jobless claims.

Impact Score: 7/10, with key influences from trade balances, labor market data, and energy market developments shaping sentiment for AUD, JPY, USD, and commodity-linked currencies.