Upcoming economic events 4 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Home Loans (MoM) (Aug)	———	2.9%
10:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep)	3.3%	3.8%
12:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.4%
12:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)	148K	142K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Sep)	———	62.7%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)	125K	118K
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep)	———	7.9%
12:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	4.2%	4.2%
13:00		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
13:10		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	484
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	587
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	158.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	315.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	16.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-35.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	-11.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	66.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	71.7K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 4, 2024

1. Australia Home Loans (MoM) (Aug) (01:30 UTC):
   Measures the monthly change in the number of new home loans. Previous: 2.9%. An increase could indicate higher housing market activity.
2. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (10:00 UTC):
   European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos may provide insights into the ECB’s view on economic conditions or future monetary policy.
3. US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Year-on-year growth in average hourly wages. Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.8%. Slower growth could ease inflation concerns, while higher growth may indicate wage-driven inflationary pressures.
4. US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the monthly change in wages. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%. A strong reading could signal inflationary pressures in the labor market.
5. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   The key indicator of employment change in the US economy. Forecast: 148K, Previous: 142K. Strong growth signals a robust labor market, while weaker numbers may raise concerns.
6. US Participation Rate (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks the percentage of the working-age population actively participating in the labor market. Previous: 62.7%. A higher rate suggests more people are entering the workforce.
7. US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks employment changes in the private sector. Forecast: 125K, Previous: 118K. A strong reading would indicate economic strength in private hiring.
8. US U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged and underemployed workers. Previous: 7.9%. A higher rate signals labor market weakness.
9. US Unemployment Rate (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   A key indicator of the health of the labor market. Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%. A steady or lower rate signals labor market strength, while an increase may raise concerns.
10. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (13:00 UTC):
    Comments from John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, could provide insights into future Fed policy, particularly around interest rates and inflation.
11. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (13:10 UTC):
    Remarks from ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson could shed light on the ECB’s view on inflation and economic conditions in the Eurozone.
12. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Tracks the number of active oil rigs in the US. Previous: 484. Changes in the rig count can signal shifts in oil production and supply.
13. U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Measures the total number of active oil and gas rigs in the US. Previous: 587. A rise in rig count suggests increased energy sector activity.
14. CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Reflects the net long or short positions in crude oil held by traders. Previous: 158.6K. An increase in net long positions may indicate bullish sentiment in the oil market.
15. CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Tracks speculative positions in gold futures. Previous: 315.4K. A rise in net long positions signals bullish expectations for gold prices.
16. CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Reflects net speculative positions in Nasdaq 100 futures. Previous: 16.0K. Higher net long positions suggest optimism in tech stocks.
17. CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Measures speculative sentiment in S&P 500 futures. Previous: -35.8K. A shift toward more long positions may indicate growing confidence in US equities.
18. CFTC AUD Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Shows speculative positions in the Australian dollar. Previous: -11.2K. A move toward more bullish positions may signal improved sentiment for the AUD.
19. CFTC JPY Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Tracks speculative positions in Japanese yen futures. Previous: 66.0K. A rise in long positions reflects increased bullish sentiment for the JPY.
20. CFTC EUR Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Measures speculative positions in the euro. Previous: 71.7K. Higher net long positions suggest optimism for the EUR.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Home Loans:
  Stronger-than-expected growth in home loans could support the AUD, signaling housing market strength. A decline may indicate cooling demand.
• ECB Speeches (De Guindos and Elderson):
  Any hints on future monetary policy tightening or inflation could move the EUR. Hawkish commentary would likely support the EUR, while dovish remarks may weaken it.
• US Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls:
  These key labor market indicators are crucial for gauging inflation and the Fed’s next moves. Strong wage growth or higher-than-expected payroll numbers would strengthen the USD, while weaker data may dampen rate hike expectations, weakening the currency.
• US Participation Rate & Unemployment Rate:
  A rising participation rate could signal an improving labor market, supporting the USD. If the unemployment rate rises, it may raise concerns about economic slowdown, weakening the USD.
• FOMC Member Williams Speech:
  Hawkish comments on inflation or interest rates could boost the USD, while a more cautious stance could soften it.
• Baker Hughes Rig Counts:
  A rising rig count suggests stronger oil and gas production, potentially weighing on crude oil prices.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Changes in speculative positions provide insight into trader sentiment. Increased bullish positioning in crude oil, gold, or equities would signal confidence in those markets, while a shift toward bearish positions could signal caution.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, driven by critical US labor market data (nonfarm payrolls, wages) and speculative positions in key commodities and financial markets. Central bank speeches add potential for market shifts, especially around future monetary policy.

Impact Score: 8/10, due to the importance of US nonfarm payrolls, wage data, and potential market-moving insights from ECB and Fed officials.