Upcoming economic events 4 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	45.9	45.0
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
13:30		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
15:00		2 points	Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.2%
15:15		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	3-Year Note Auction	———	-3.878%
20:00		2 points	RBNZ Financial Stability Report	———	———
22:00		2 points	RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 4, 2024

1. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (09:00 UTC):
   Measures manufacturing activity in the Eurozone. Forecast: 45.9, Previous: 45.0. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, signaling slowing industrial activity in the region.
2. Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   A meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss economic policies and developments. Key topics or statements may impact the EUR, especially if discussions revolve around fiscal policy or economic growth.
3. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (13:30 UTC):
   ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson may discuss the Eurozone’s economic outlook and inflation, providing potential insights into the ECB’s monetary policy.
4. US Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) (15:00 UTC):
   Measures the monthly change in orders placed with manufacturers. Forecast: -0.4%, Previous: -0.2%. A decline would indicate weaker demand for manufactured goods, potentially weighing on the USD.
5. ECB McCaul Speaks (15:15 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul may provide insights into financial stability and regulation in the Eurozone.
6. US 3-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   The US Treasury auctions 3-year government notes. Previous yield: -3.878%. Higher yields may indicate increased inflation expectations or market demand for higher returns, potentially supporting the USD.
7. RBNZ Financial Stability Report (20:00 UTC):
   The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s report on the stability of the financial system, which may highlight risks and set the tone for monetary policy, impacting the NZD.
8. RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (22:00 UTC):
   Governor Adrian Orr may discuss the economic outlook and financial stability in New Zealand, potentially giving insights into future RBNZ policy direction.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI:
  A lower-than-expected reading would indicate contraction, potentially weighing on the EUR by signaling economic weakness. Higher-than-expected data would suggest resilience, supporting the EUR.
• US Factory Orders:
  A decline in factory orders signals weaker manufacturing demand, which could weigh on the USD. Stronger orders would indicate sustained demand, supporting the currency.
• ECB & RBNZ Speeches and Financial Stability Report:
  Hawkish remarks from ECB officials would support the EUR, while dovish comments could soften it. For New Zealand, RBNZ’s financial stability report and any policy insights from Gov Orr would influence the NZD, especially if they signal upcoming rate changes or economic concerns.
• US 3-Year Note Auction:
  Higher yields would support the USD, indicating increased demand for US debt or inflation expectations. Lower yields could suggest reduced inflationary pressures.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with attention on Eurozone manufacturing data, US factory orders, and speeches from central bank officials. The RBNZ Financial Stability Report and ECB commentary will also contribute to potential shifts in EUR and NZD.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by central bank insights and manufacturing data from the Eurozone and US, which will shape expectations for economic health and monetary policy directions.