Upcoming economic events 4 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
07:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
08:00		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———-	———-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 4, 2025

Europe – ECB Commentary

ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 07:30 UTC

• Impact: Markets will closely monitor Lagarde’s tone for any clues on future ECB rate direction. A dovish tone may pressure the EUR, while hawkish remarks could lift bond yields and support the currency.

ECB’s Elderson Speaks – 08:00 UTC

• Impact: Elderson’s comments may provide further insight into the ECB’s inflation outlook and policy bias. Market sensitivity will depend on the alignment or contrast with Lagarde’s messaging.

Market Impact Analysis

• With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, attention shifts to European central bank commentary.
• Lagarde’s remarks will be the primary driver for EUR and bond yields, especially in the absence of macroeconomic data.
• Limited volatility expected unless Lagarde signals a shift in ECB policy stance or inflation outlook.

Overall Impact Score: 3/10

Key Watchpoints:

• Lagarde’s tone – Hawkish comments may support EUR and raise yields; dovish tone could signal policy caution.
• Market liquidity – Thinner trading volumes due to U.S. holiday may amplify reactions to ECB