Upcoming economic events 4 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.5%	0.2%
00:30		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	1.1%	1.0%
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Nov)	50.2	49.7
01:45		2 points	Caixin Services PMI (Nov)	52.5	52.0
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)	48.1	50.0
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Nov)	49.2	51.6
13:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)	166K	233K
13:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov)	55.3	54.1
14:45		3 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)	57.0	55.0
15:00		2 points	Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	-0.5%
15:00		2 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Nov)	53.0	53.0
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	55.5	56.0
15:00		3 points	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov)	56.4	58.1
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	-1.844M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	-0.909M
15:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
18:45		3 points	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	———	———
19:00		2 points	Beige Book	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 4, 2024

1. Australia GDP Data (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   • QoQ: Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.2%.
   • YoY: Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: 1.0%.
     Strong GDP growth would signal economic recovery, supporting the AUD. Weak data would suggest slower economic activity, potentially weighing on the currency.
2. Japan & China PMI Data (00:30–01:45 UTC):
   • Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 50.2, Previous: 49.7.
   • China Caixin Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 52.5, Previous: 52.0.
     PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion. Strong figures would support the JPY and CNY by signaling robust service sector performance, while weaker data might weigh on the currencies.
3. Eurozone PMI Data (09:00 UTC):
   • Composite PMI (Nov): Forecast: 48.1, Previous: 50.0.
   • Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 49.2, Previous: 51.6.
     PMIs below 50 indicate contraction. Weak data would weigh on the EUR, while stronger-than-expected readings may provide support.
4. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) (13:15 UTC):
   • Forecast: 166K, Previous: 233K.
     Indicates private-sector job growth. A weaker number may suggest labor market cooling, potentially weighing on the USD. Strong data would support the currency.
5. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (13:30 & 15:30 UTC):
   Hawkish comments from Lagarde would support the EUR by reinforcing tightening expectations, while dovish remarks could soften the currency.
6. US PMI & Factory Orders (14:45–15:00 UTC):
   • S&P Global Services PMI (Nov): Forecast: 57.0, Previous: 55.0.
   • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 55.5, Previous: 56.0.
   • Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -0.5%.
     Improving PMI and factory orders data would signal resilience in the US economy, supporting the USD. Weak data might weigh on the currency.
7. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -1.844M.
     A larger drawdown would support oil prices and commodity-linked currencies, while a build would indicate weaker demand, pressuring prices.
8. Fed Chair Powell Speaks & Beige Book (18:45–19:00 UTC):
   Powell’s comments and the Beige Book may provide insights into the Fed’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future policy moves. Hawkish tones would support the USD, while dovish remarks could weaken it.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia GDP Data:
  Strong GDP figures would support the AUD, signaling economic strength. Weak data might dampen sentiment for the currency.
• Japan & China PMI Data:
  Expansion in Japan’s or China’s service sectors would support the JPY and CNY, signaling economic recovery. Contraction could weigh on both currencies.
• Eurozone PMI Data & ECB Commentary:
  Weaker PMIs would weigh on the EUR by highlighting economic challenges. Hawkish ECB commentary could counteract the impact of weak data, supporting the currency.
• US ADP, PMI, and Factory Orders:
  Strong employment and PMI data would reinforce the USD by signaling resilience in the labor and service sectors. Weak data might suggest economic cooling, weighing on the currency.
• Crude Oil Inventories:
  A drawdown would support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD. A build would signal weaker demand, pressuring prices.
• Fed Chair Powell & Beige Book:
  Hawkish tones would support the USD by reinforcing rate hike expectations. Dovish remarks or cautious sentiment could weigh on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with key data from Australia, Eurozone, and the US, alongside central bank commentary from Lagarde and Powell shaping market sentiment.

Impact Score: 8/10, driven by GDP, PMI, employment data, and central bank insights influencing AUD, EUR, and USD movements.