Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 00:30 |  | 2 points | au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul) | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| 01:45 |  | 2 points | Caixin Services PMI (Jul) | 50.4 | 50.6 |
| 03:35 | | 2 points | 10-Year JGB Auction | ———- | 1.442% |
| 08:00 |  | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul) | 51.0 | 52.0 |
| 08:00 | | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) | 51.2 | 50.5 |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Exports (Jun) | ———- | 279.00B |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Imports (Jun) | ———- | 350.50B |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Trade Balance (Jun) | -62.60B | -71.50B |
| 13:45 | | 2 points | S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) | 54.6 | 52.9 |
| 13:45 | | 2 points | S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) | 55.2 | 52.9 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul) | ———- | 47.2 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.5 | 50.8 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | ———- | 67.5 |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 3-Year Note Auction | ———- | 3.891% |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | ———- | ———- |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | 1.539M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 5, 2025
Asia – Japan & China
au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul) – 00:30 UTC
- Expected: 53.5 (unchanged)
- Impact: Continued expansion in Japan’s services sector supports domestic economic stability and may provide mild support for the JPY and regional equities.
Caixin Services PMI (Jul) – 01:45 UTC
- Expected: 50.4 (prev 50.6)
- Impact: Slight deceleration in China’s private sector services momentum. A drop below 50 could weigh on CNY, regional sentiment, and commodity-linked currencies.
10-Year JGB Auction – 03:35 UTC
- Yield Estimate: ~1.442%
- Impact: A key gauge of demand in Japan’s bond market. Weak uptake could lift yields (pressuring JPY); strong demand would suggest investor comfort with Japan’s policy path.
Europe – Eurozone Composite & Services PMIs
HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul) – 08:00 UTC
- Expected: 51.0 (prev 52.0)
- Impact: Slower composite growth may signal a soft patch; markets will look to services strength to offset weakness in industrial activity.
HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) – 08:00 UTC
- Expected: 51.2 (prev 50.5)
- Impact: Services sector strength provides support for domestic consumption expectations. A pickup may boost EUR and euro area equities.
United States – Trade, Services PMI & Treasury
U.S. Trade Data (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
- Exports: $279.00B
- Imports: $350.50B
- Trade Balance: –$62.60B (prev –$71.50B)
- Impact: A narrower deficit indicates improving trade balances, supporting USD sentiment, equity demand, and easing concerns over external drag on GDP.
S&P Global PMI for July – 13:45 UTC
- Composite: 54.6 (prev 52.9)
- Services: 55.2 (prev 52.9)
- Impact: Strong service-sector performance supports optimism on U.S. growth. A robust reading can strengthen sentiment across equities and the USD.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Employment & Prices (Jul) – 14:00 UTC
- PMI: 51.5 (prev 50.8)
- Employment Subindex: ~47.2
- Prices Index: ~67.5
- Impact: Rising services PMI underlines expanding demand; any weakness in employment or high prices could signal softening momentum or persistent cost pressure.
3-Year Note Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Yield Estimate: ~3.891%
- Impact: Auction appetite provides insight into short-term rate expectations. Weak demand may lift yields, pressuring fixed-income instruments.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) Update – 17:00 UTC
- Forecast likely unchanged (~2.3%)
- Impact: A steady forecast maintains confidence in moderate growth; significant revisions could influence Fed policy sentiment.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC
- Forecast: +1.539M barrels
- Impact: A build in crude inventories may cap oil prices and dampen energy-linked inflation expectations, potentially pressuring energy equities.
Market Impact Analysis
- U.S. services data (S&P Global & ISM) will be central, helping confirm economic strength.
- Trade balance improvement adds support to the USD and risk appetite.
- Treasury auction results are key for near-term yield expectations.
- BoJ auction and Asia PMIs set early session tone for regional FX and equity markets.
- Eurozone PMI divergence (composite cooling vs services strength) offers nuance to EUR sentiment.
- Oil inventory data could inject volatility into commodities and inflation-linked sentiment.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
Key Watchpoints
- The strength of U.S. services PMIs—above 54 would reinforce growth resilience.
- ISM employment and price indices—signals about wage pressure and inflation trends.
- Treasury auction demand—weakness could lift yields and affect sentiment.
- China PMI moderation—if it dips below 50, may weigh on Asia risk sentiment.
- Oil inventory build—if confirmed, could pull oil prices down, pressuring inflation-sensitive assets.
