Upcoming economic events 4 April 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
08:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Mar)	3.9%	4.0%
12:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	137K	151K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Mar)	———-	62.4%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)	130K	140K
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Mar)	———-	8.0%
12:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	4.1%	4.1%
15:25		3 points	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	———-	———-
15:25		2 points	Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks	———-	———-
16:45		2 points	Fed Waller Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	484
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	592
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	180.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	257.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	23.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	68.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-70.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	123.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	59.4K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on April 4, 2025

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

1. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (08:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Remarks on inflation, monetary policy, or economic outlook may influence the euro (EUR) and bond yields.

United States (🇺🇸)

2. Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 137K | Previous: 151K
   • Market Impact:
     • A lower print may increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressuring the USD.
     • A stronger number would suggest labor market resilience, supporting the USD and equities.
3. Unemployment Rate (Mar)
   • Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
4. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
   • Forecast: 130K | Previous: 140K
5. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) & (YoY)
   • MoM Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
   • YoY Forecast: 3.9% | Previous: 4.0%
   • Market Impact:
     • Earnings data are closely watched for inflation implications.
     • Strong wage growth may reignite rate hike concerns, while weaker growth supports a dovish Fed outlook.
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks (15:25 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • One of the most impactful events of the day.
     • Any deviation from the current Fed tone could significantly move rates, stocks, and USD.
7. Other Fed Speakers: Barr (15:25 UTC), Waller (16:45 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • May offer insights into internal Fed thinking, especially regarding inflation or employment.
8. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC)
   • Previous Oil Rig Count: 484
   • Previous Total Rig Count: 592
   • Market Impact:
     • Changes in rig count provide insight into future U.S. oil production, affecting WTI crude prices.
9. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC)
   • Crude Oil: Previous 180.6K
   • Gold: Previous 257.9K
   • Nasdaq 100: Previous 23.0K
   • S&P 500: Previous 68.3K
   • AUD: Previous -70.4K
   • JPY: Previous 123.0K
   • EUR: Previous 59.4K
   • Market Impact:
     • These figures track market sentiment and positioning, especially across commodities and indices.
     • Large shifts may signal risk appetite or hedging behaviors.

Overall Market Impact Score: 8/10

Key Focus:

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Wage Growth: Most market-moving indicators.
• Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Potential for policy guidance or market reassurance.
• Speculative Positioning: Offers end-of-week insight into trader sentiment across assets.