Upcoming economic events 31 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.7%
01:30		2 points	Chinese Composite PMI (Oct)	———	50.4
01:30		3 points	Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	50.0	49.8
01:30		2 points	Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	50.5	50.0
02:30		2 points	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
03:00		2 points	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)	———	———
03:00		3 points	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%
06:30		2 points	BoJ Press Conference	———	———
09:00		2 points	ECB Economic Bulletin	———	———
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.6%	2.7%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Oct)	———	-0.1%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY)(Oct)	1.9%	1.7%
10:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	6.4%	6.4%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———	1,897K
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)	———	2.7%
12:30		3 points	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)	0.3%	0.1%
12:30		2 points	Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3)	0.9%	0.9%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	231K	227K
12:30		2 points	PCE Price index (YoY) (Sep)	———	2.2%
12:30		2 points	PCE price index (MoM) (Sep)	———	0.1%
12:30		2 points	Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep)	0.4%	0.2%
13:45		3 points	Chicago PMI (Oct)	47.1	46.6
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,029B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 31, 2024

1. Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) (01:30 UTC):
   Measures monthly changes in retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.7%. Lower sales would suggest weaker consumer demand, potentially weighing on the AUD.
2. China Composite PMI (Oct) (01:30 UTC):
   Tracks overall business activity in China, combining manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Previous: 50.4. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
3. China Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (01:30 UTC):
   Tracks the health of China’s manufacturing sector. Forecast: 50.0, Previous: 49.8. A reading at or above 50 signals expansion.
4. China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (01:30 UTC):
   Measures activity in China’s services and construction sectors. Forecast: 50.5, Previous: 50.0. Above 50 indicates growth.
5. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (02:30 UTC):
   Provides insights into the Bank of Japan’s stance on monetary policy, including any potential rate changes.
6. BoJ Outlook Report (03:00 UTC):
   The BoJ’s quarterly economic outlook, which includes inflation and growth projections. It’s closely watched for insights into the BoJ’s future policy direction.
7. BoJ Interest Rate Decision (03:00 UTC):
   Expected rate: 0.25%. No change is anticipated, but any deviation would impact the JPY.
8. ECB Economic Bulletin (09:00 UTC):
   Provides insights into economic developments in the Eurozone, guiding expectations for future ECB actions.
9. Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) (10:00 UTC):
   Excludes food and energy prices. Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.7%. Lower inflation may ease pressure on the ECB for further tightening.
10. Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Oct) (10:00 UTC):
    Tracks overall consumer inflation. Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 1.7%. Higher CPI would indicate persistent inflation.
11. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Sep) (10:00 UTC):
    Measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Forecast: 6.4%, Previous: 6.4%.
12. US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Key inflation measure used by the Fed. Previous: 2.7%. Higher readings would signal inflationary pressures.
13. US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) (12:30 UTC):
    Measures labor cost changes. Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.9%. Rising costs could pressure inflation.
14. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
    Tracks weekly filings for unemployment benefits. Forecast: 231K, Previous: 227K. Rising claims may signal labor market softening.
15. US Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.2%. An increase would indicate strong consumer spending, supporting the USD.
16. Chicago PMI (Oct) (13:45 UTC):
    An indicator of business activity in the Chicago region. Forecast: 47.1, Previous: 46.6. Below 50 signals contraction.
17. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC):
    Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: $7,029B.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Retail Sales:
  Weaker retail sales would suggest a slowdown in consumer spending, likely softening the AUD. Stronger-than-expected growth would support the currency.
• China PMI Data:
  Readings above 50 for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs would indicate growth, which would support commodities and risk-sensitive currencies. Weak PMIs may dampen global sentiment.
• BoJ Monetary Policy and Outlook Report:
  Any unexpected shift toward tightening would strengthen the JPY, while a continued dovish stance would weigh on it.
• Eurozone CPI and Core CPI (YoY):
  Higher-than-expected inflation figures would support the EUR by increasing the likelihood of further ECB tightening, while lower figures may soften the currency.
• US Core PCE Price Index & Employment Cost Index:
  Higher readings for core PCE or employment costs would indicate persistent inflation, supporting the USD and potentially leading to more Fed tightening.
• US Initial Jobless Claims & Personal Spending:
  Lower jobless claims indicate labor market resilience, supporting the USD. Increased personal spending would also support the USD by signaling strong consumer demand.
• Chicago PMI:
  A reading below 50 would indicate economic contraction, potentially weighing on the USD.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by key inflation and employment data from the US, along with central bank reports and CPI data from the Eurozone and Japan. These events will impact expectations for global growth and monetary policy.

Impact Score: 8/10, due to critical economic indicators from multiple major economies that will shape expectations for inflation and central bank policy adjustments.